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Stats: 1304109 members, 1857685 topics. Date: Friday, 30 January 2015 at 07:33 PM
|Politics / Re: What Gmb Did To Benue People. by aletheia(m): 5:23pm On Jan 27|
barcanista:So you agree you are a hypocrite since you describe what you do with regards to Fashola &Tinubu & Amaechi.
|Politics / Re: O.M.G Check Out Prof Osibanjo by aletheia(m): 1:22pm On Jan 13|
|Politics / Re: 2015 Election Result Projection Model by aletheia(m): 12:19pm On Jan 13|
No worries bro. Will be waiting for your response. Did some modelling myself which showed basically a dead heat in which the elections could go either way with a winning margin of about 400,000 to just over a million votes.
|Politics / Re: About Jonathan And His Aclaimed Universities. by aletheia(m): 12:17pm On Jan 13|
|Politics / Re: About Jonathan And His Aclaimed Universities. by aletheia(m): 12:15pm On Jan 13|
OP. Truly you are not sincere. The universities all have websites. Someone even posted them earlier. You can get the pictures you want from the university websites. See from the Federal University Lokoja website, one can pull several pictures.
|Politics / Re: President Jonathan Made N43m And Paid N6.26m Tax In 3 Years by aletheia(m): 11:37am On Dec 30, 2014|
Omooba77:OP: Both you and the writer of the Vanguard article have problem with maths.
14,410,290.48 x 3 = 43,230,871.44 (43 million) not 4.323 billion.
A lot of the people that commented before me also need to go back to school.
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - Prediction Of The Outcome II by aletheia(m): 6:00pm On Dec 29, 2014|
The bolded part you refer to is this: "Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40%". I am thus given to understand that English "follow join your problem". What do you understand by the word "hypothetical"? Your whole attempt at prognostication is hypothetical. Every model is hypothetical. But you are exhibiting a typical Nigerian reaction...unable to understand or take on board constructive criticism. Is there anything in my suggestions that makes your model worse? A good working model must approximate as closely as possible reality and the reality is that voter turnout will vary from state to state. The past elections suggest so. And there is no reason to think it will be different in 2015. Your model is skewed and severely flawed for failing to account for such a critical variable...and it wouldn't take much effort to rectify this flaw.
PassingShot:Did you factor in the reality of differential voter turnout? It is erroneous to think that the voter turnout will be the same across board. A simple logical outcome seems to escape you. Not all states have the same numbers of voters. High voter turnout in Ekiti and Bayelsa disproportionately increases their overall votes contribution in comparison to low turnout in Kano and Lagos states. In effect, each state's contribution to the votes total is a weighted average determined by both voter turnout and number of registered votes. This I have already proven using the examples above which for reasons of English comprehension eludes you.
My point is proven and objective readers will understand the points I am making. I shall say no more on this subject.
|Politics / Re: Abuja-kaduna Rail Line Will Be Completed And Handed Over In December by aletheia(m): 10:15pm On Dec 28, 2014|
Abuja-Kaduna rail reaches 100% per cent completion
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - Prediction Of The Outcome II by aletheia(m): 8:59pm On Dec 28, 2014|
PassingShot:This response of yours that I highlighted shows how you are feeding your biases into the model. I specifically said that voter turnout in 3 states Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa - these worst hit by the BH problem would be low. In 2011, these 3 states had voter turnouts 50% or less. Is it in 2015 when the insurgency is worse that the voter turnout will rise to 60 - 70%.
Please be objective.
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - Prediction Of The Outcome II by aletheia(m): 8:51pm On Dec 28, 2014|
PassingShot:I will have to disagree with this. The point of my observations is to help you refine your model to make it even more accurate. Your reaction truly reveals your emotional bias. A researcher ought to be unbiased in his or assessment. Voter turnout has a differential impact since it varies from state to state. BY ASSUMING A UNIFORM VOTER TURNOUT ACROSS THE 36 STATES, YOU BIAS YOUR MODEL. And I will prove it.
For example, consider that in Lagos, Kano, and Kaduna which are the 3 largest states in terms of voting population, the voter turnout was 32%, 53% and 66% in 2011. Let us assume that this turnout figures remain unchanged for the 2015 elections using the current numbers of registered voters for these 3 states: Lagos (5,426,391) Kano (4,751,818) and Kaduna (3,743,815). This will give us total votes cast in the 3 states respectively as 1,736,445, 2,515,464 and 2,470,918. What becomes immediately apparent here is how despite having the largest number of potential voters, Lagos is lagging behind the other 2 states in actual voters. So low voter turnout in any state hurts dispropotionately the party likely to win that state.
Furthermore, let us also assume that the electorate votes exactly as it did in 2011 for these 3 states and the share of votes for the PDP in the presidential election remains unchanged at 65.9% (Lagos), 16.5% (Kano), and 46.3% (Kaduna). This would yield for these 3 states for the PDP a total vote count of 1,559,864 which is 23% of the votes. Now if hypothetically, turnout in Lagos rises to 50%, and that of Kano and Kaduna drops to 40%, what do you think happens to PDP's share of the votes assuming of course that voting intentions are unchanged? Since you can use a spreadsheet, I am sure you will discover that the numbers change. PDP's votes rise to 2,101,616 (34%) - an increase of 11%.
Do you now see the impact of differential voter turnout? By such fine margins are elections won. Not the broad brush strokes you are painting with.
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - Prediction Of The Outcome II by aletheia(m): 5:39pm On Dec 28, 2014|
PassingShot:OP: You tried by seeking to refine your model but it is tainted by your not forgoing your biases (I understand your intense desire for a Buhari win). I have a couple of observations which you might want to implement to get a far more accurate model.
1. Voter turnout is probably not going to be more than 50 - 60% overall. It will be very low in Yobe, Borno, and Adamawa states, probably in the region of 20 - 30%. You need to account for the impact of voter turnout. It's no use having high number of voters if they will not turn out.
2. Nigerian presidential elections are similar to that of the United States. The requirement for a 25% spread across 24 states is similar to the electoral college votes of the US model. As such, presidential elections are won on a state by state basis (with political, ethnic, and religious factors at play) rather than on a regional basis. For example, even though it looks likely that Buhari will win in Jigawa and Bauchi states and may be in Kaduna states, the incumbent president will secure at least the required 25% or more of votes in those states.
You need to input those variables into your model. I direct you to similar models here on Nairaland: Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model which accurately forecasted the 2011 election results, for how you ought to approach this issue.
P.S. I have attached the spreadsheet from 2011 for your comparison.
|Politics / Re: Fifteen Achievements Of General Buhari - To Doyin Okupe by aletheia(m): 3:01am On Dec 27, 2014|
Tearg1:I remember queuing up for milk, omo, sugar &c dubbed "essenco" then because of widespread shortages! Yes these were scarce! I remember fear and dull depression. You young ones born after 1984 have a romaticized view of that terrible time.
|Politics / Re: Fifteen Achievements Of General Buhari - To Doyin Okupe by aletheia(m): 2:50am On Dec 27, 2014|
Rawani:See grasping at straws and rigging of polls.
#1 and #10 are the same. #3 and #4 is vague piffle amounting to the same thing.
#5. - The only association he had with that team was christening them "golden eaglets". The young boys that won that Kodak sponsored tournament were put together and taken there by YSFON. The FG had absolutely nothing to do with it.
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by aletheia(m): 5:02pm On Dec 25, 2014|
PassingShot:Sorry, I meant Ondo not Osun...a slip.
|Politics / Re: 2015 Presidential Election - A More Objective Prediction Of The Outcome by aletheia(m): 8:42pm On Dec 24, 2014|
OP. You been try. But run your model again but with Jonathan winning in Lagos, Ekiti, Oyo, and Osun states which is a more accurate reflection of the reality than Buhari winning in all the SW states.
|Politics / 2015 Election Result Projection Model by aletheia(m): 7:31pm On Dec 16, 2014|
Do you recall this thread of yours Updated 2011 Election Result Projection Model from the last election. The models predicted quite accurately the eventual results.
How about a similar model for the 2015 election. Are you up for it?
|Religion / Re: The Good News by aletheia(m): 5:02pm On Dec 07, 2014|
|Education / Re: 10 Words Nigerians Commonly Misspell by aletheia(m): 7:06pm On Sep 16, 2014|
A pet peeve of mine are those who cannot spell their names properly e.g:
Micheal is wrong. Michael is the right spelling
Isreal is wrong. Israel is the right spelling
Racheal is wrong. Rachael/Rachel is the right spelling
And so on.
|Politics / Re: Ebola Hoax: Why Are Mr Sawyer's Wife & Kids Not Infected? by aletheia(m): 11:03pm On Aug 14, 2014|
GenBuhari: If only 53% it beg the question even more why the hysteria over Ebola whereas Rabies is approx 100%You 've been going on and on about rabies as if it clinches the argument.
1. Rabies is a zoonosis. It ordinarily does not infect man.
2. Rabies is transmitted through the bite of an infected animal like a dog.
3. A person with rabies is not likely to infect those around him unlike those infected with Ebola
4. Dogs are required to be vaccinated against rabies. This is the most important primary preventive measure. There is no preventive vaccine against Ebola.
5. Once rabies develops, it is almost universally fatal, however and this is the critical thing, a person bitten by a rabid animal can be treated within 48 - 72 hours of the bite with anti-rabies shots which prevent him from developing rabies. You can't do that for Ebola.
6. We do not get rabies epidemics in which 1000s of people die within months. Now if you had tried to argue this using the flu virus, it would make more sense.
Stop trying to mislead people into not taking precautions that might save their lives in the event that the Ebola outbreak spreads. While I do not agree that experimental and unproven therapies be inflicted on Nigerians, the Ebola outbreak represents a serious danger to us all.
This was how Nigerians denied the existence of HIV/AIDS until people started dying off.
|Politics / Re: Ebola Hoax: Why Are Mr Sawyer's Wife & Kids Not Infected? by aletheia(m): 8:40pm On Aug 14, 2014|
OrlandoOwoh: But everybody that has it in Nigeria dies? How come no cure has been found for this disease since 1976?This is part of the ignorance that leads people to bathe with salt. How is it that everyone who has had Ebola in Nigeria died? Not everyone who contracts Ebola dies. The case fatality rate in this current outbreak is about 53%. Not everyone dies. Cures are difficult to develop for viral illnesses.
The solution to ignorance is to read. Most of you don't read. And when you do, you fail to process and synthesize the information you are presented with.
|Politics / Re: Ebola Hoax: Why Are Mr Sawyer's Wife & Kids Not Infected? by aletheia(m): 5:22pm On Aug 14, 2014|
GenBuhari: Ok what about his colleagues why have they not been infected?His sister died of Ebola. Does she not qualify as family?
The protocol officer that interacted with him is also dead. Does he not qualify as a colleague.
It is notions like this that caused people in Liberia and Sierra Leone to hide away their sick thus not ensuring the effective quarantine that would have stopped the outbreak.
Ever since the emergence of Ebola in the 70s, it is doctors and nurses who have been most at risk. The only point on which I agree with you is that Africans should not be used as experimental guinea pigs for unproven vaccines and drugs.
|Nairaland / General / Re: Why Are Nigerians So Unserious?!? by aletheia(m): 12:04pm On Aug 01, 2014|
Ishilove: ...While their counterparts in the Middle East the previous year bled and died during the Arab spring, Nigerians conducted their own 'Naija spring' on the internet, circulating funny pictures and memes as their own contribution to the struggle.
A year on the "Arab Spring" has become a horror of nightmare. Ask the Libyans, Egyptians, Syrians, and the Iraqis. History shows that ultimately all "revolutions" fail. So Nigerians are actually better off with their approach to issues.
|Politics / Re: The Link Between HIV And Ebola by aletheia(m): 9:46pm On Jul 30, 2014|
NwaNimo1: The only connection is that they are 'man made' viruses produced and released to depopulate!
The only connection?
What about this:
aletheia: . . .the CCR5Δ32 mutation which is much more common in the European population and confers protection against HIV
|Politics / Re: The Link Between HIV And Ebola by aletheia(m): 7:17pm On Jul 30, 2014|
For the first time in history, the virus has been documented as having infected well over 1,000 people across at least three nations all in one outbreak.
|Politics / The Link Between HIV And Ebola by aletheia(m): 6:48pm On Jul 30, 2014|
It struck me a little while back that the dynamics and manifestations of the Ebola virus infection closely resemble that of the Black Plague that killed more than a third of Europe's population in the past. So I decided to do a little more research
History has always taught that it was spread by rats even though overwhelming evidence suggested a person-to-person mode of transmission, together with outbreaks of Black Death in places like Iceland where there were no rats.
To my shock, I found that there is a possible connection between HIV and Ebola. According to the leading researchers in this area, Susan Scott and Christopher Duncan, the CCR5Δ32 mutation which is much more common in the European population and confers protection against HIV increased in frequency in the population around the time of the Black Death.
Scott and Duncan suggest that those who carried the CCR5Δ32 allele (and especially those who were homozygous) were more resistant to whatever organism caused this pandemic, similar to what we see with HIV–and that these resistant individuals survived the Black Death at higher rates than their countrymen who didn't carry the mutation, thus driving up the frequency of the CCR5Δ32 allele in the population.
Moreover, it has been shown that CCR5Δ32 does not confer protection against Yersinia pestis, the presumed causative agent of the Black Death but does confer some protection against viral haemorrhagic diseases like Ebola. This mutation is exceedingly rare in the African population.
So the evidence would suggest that individuals who have the CCR5Δ32 may be protected against Ebola.
Now what has agitated my mind since the first reports of the outbreak which is now officially the worst in history is: Why now? Why here? Historically outbreaks of Ebola have been in Central and East Africa. Never reported in West Africa until now. How did Ebola get to West Africa? What exactly is going on?
Are we in the midst of some sort of experiment in biological population control? Recall that HIV has largely failed to affect West Africa the same way it did to East and Southern Africa.
Just some thoughts.
Black Death 'was caused by the Ebola virus'
|Health / !!! EBOLA ALERT !!! by aletheia(m): 9:56am On Jul 24, 2014|
Please be informed that a suspected case of Ebola Haemorrhagic fever has been confirmed by NCDC through our Murtala Mohammed International Airport, Lagos on 22/7/2014.
The case is now receiving the medical team attention at Lagos. All Port Health Services staff throughout the Nation is expected to be extra vigilant, you should report on any suspected cases while taking into consideration the necessary aseptic techniques in handling such cases.
Furthermore, you are all expected to institute the necessary actions to the Border Communities.
Urgent Reports should be sent to:
1. Director Public Health FMOH - 08037211528
2. PD NCDC FMOH - 07067352220
3. CSG I PHS FMOH - 08097979595
4. CSG I Epidemiology FMOH - 08033120482
|Health / Re: Nma Strike: The Patients's Perspective by aletheia(m): 7:16pm On Jul 15, 2014|
Garki Hospital Completes Three Kidney Transplants
Garki Hospital Performs First Heart Surgery Says it’s proof PPP is working
There are many more Nigerian hospitals across the country doing similar surgeries.
The NMA strike will enter its second phase: Private Hospitals will join in.
It is a necessary struggle incumbent on the medical profession in keeping with the oaths that all doctors swore to:
I will maintain by all the means in my power, the honour and the noble traditions of the medical profession
|Health / Re: Salaries Of Doctors And Other Health Workers In Some Countries by aletheia(m): 4:08pm On Jul 12, 2014|
prettyprettywow: You forgot that these are salaries of specialist Doctors(consultants) with over 12yrs of education and average of $300k in student loan (for US Drs) as compared to the salaries of an entry level nurse ( 4yrs degree and less than $50k student loanfor US graduates)). You fail to realize that in US, resident Drs earn an average of $45k, quite below the salary of the least hospital worker. So when they say Drs aern 200k, know that they are talking about consultants, and if you wanna compare with nurses, talk about nurse practitioners where some specialist nurse practitioners earn more than some specialist Drs e.g Anaesthetic nurses (CRNA) earn more than family physicians. Our Drs want to reap where they did not sow.What do you understand by the word "Average"?
|Politics / Re: Vote Closed > PDP * - APC * by aletheia(m): 5:21pm On Jan 10, 2014|
GenBuhari: Why close poll?What a turnaround. Weren't you the same person insisting in 2011 that Buhari's winning in online polls prior to the election was a reflection of reality? Now the shoe's on the other foot, the online polls are rigged?
|Politics / Re: Vote Closed > PDP * - APC * by aletheia(m): 11:53pm On Jan 08, 2014|
It would appear that this thread is indicative of APC losing the social media battle.
|Politics / Re: Beneficiaries Of Gej's 1.6 Million Jobs Identify Yourselves by aletheia(m): 9:14pm On Jan 08, 2014|
Ile-Ife:Ignorant lout. Job creation doesn't entail vacancies in a "parastatal". Young men and women like you are starting businesses and employing others. No wonder you here are demonstrating jobless frustration. . .keep waiting for a "parastatal" job. You go wait tire.
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