₦airaland Forum

And when SS had the Presidency how did ordinary SS people gain?

I am from the SS and I would be more than happy for no SS person to occupy any of the top offices of state, if the people who did occupy those offices did their jobs diligently. At the end of the day that is all we need. COMPETENCE and HONESTY.

Whitehorse:
@onatisi,

You have been spot on with your analysis. The SW did not deliver the knockout blow for Buhari, so he needs to clean out at least 4 NC states with sizeable margins, if not the margins for GEJ from the SE/SS will erase Buhari. Also, GEJ got sizeable numbers in Ekiti to erase any numbers Buhari got in other SW states.

The margins will determine this election.

Good analysis @Whitehorse, but do bear in my mind as I mentioned in an above post, the battle line is now in the NE, if Buhari wins Adamawa/Taraba in addition to the expected wins in Yobe and Borno, I see no way back for GEJ, however if GEJ wins those 2 states and keeps the margin of defeat in Borno and Yobe above 30% and (the big IF) is able to secure 30% in target NW states like Sokoto and Kaduna then the big cooking pot from SS/SE might just do the trick.

You are 100% correct, the margins are key in this election

Crunching the numbers so far, I would like to advice both sets of supporters, we are looking at A VERY CLOSE election. Don't be surprised if one state makes the difference. Best neither side should celebrate too early

onatisi:
you are correct and the main battle is now in the north. Voting has finished by now and figures are been compiled .let's wait and see what the results are . We should not forget that some lgs in the north had their elections postponed indefinitely. I love this election and I believe it will change a lot in our politics . If gej wins ,pdp will now know they can't take ppl for granted ,if apc wins they too will know that all eyes on them to perform . But like I have been saying since yesterday ,I forsee a very tough legal battle ahead ,the outcome of which will determine who becomes the president of nigeria .

Very well said. I don't think we've had a tough election like this in Nigeria since 1979 and then the votes were split 5 ways. This one is going to be very tight and close.

The lawyers will have field day afterwards. In fact if you are senior lawyer in the SS/SE Christmas has come early!

sexyjob:
Hope all parameters where considered and duely inputted into your model

O boy with Nigeria there are an infinite number of parameters, if I try to input and analyze all the possible variables my laptop would explode!!

onatisi:
it seems many of u guys don't understand that sw has messed things up for buhari and have given pdp and gej a slight edge . Buhari has to make up for the lost numbers apc recorded in the sw,and it isn't easy because now Mr President men are fighting for each state in the north . It would have been easy for buhari if apc had cleared their region with like 90% but 50%or 53% is bad news. Remember plateau state too is there and it is most likely going to pdp . tinubu and co knows the implications of their losing ekiti and valuabe votes in other sw states ,I know it wasn't what they bargained for.

Spoken like a true numbers man, well done!
For me this is all about the numbers, not the candidates, I totally love this type of thing and I was up all night during both Obama's elections.

I still think it's GMB's election to loose, the massive votes he scored in the NW, have giving him a big buffer. The SW was a statistical setback as it has given GEJ a route back in. As i always expected this election will be decided in the NE. If GEJ wins Adamawa and Taraba and limits the loos in Yobe and Borno(I think he'll loose very big in Borno BTW). Then he would have cut the buffer to the point where the SS/SE may take him over the line.
BTW if GMB wins EITHER of Taraba or Adamawa then it's all over in my model for GEJ

kokoA:
I guess you've not factored Buhari winning Kogi into your calculation.. GEJ won Nasarwa, Ondo amd Kogi in 2011, but he has lost two out of the 3.. Nasarawa may still shock you, wait till results from APC strongholds starts coming out.

In my model GMB wins Kogi but with a slim margin. GMB really needs to win Nasarawa with a good margin. As another poster noted above it seems Adamawa and Taraba may (I say may as this is very fluid election) go to GEJ. If that happens expect the MASSIVE beans cooking going on in SE/SS to take GEJ over the line.
I always knew the cooking would happen, but my model had GMB clearing the North with the expectation of Benue and Plateau. Anyway let's keep watching it's going to be a fascinating day.

if this is true it throws my calculations back into a mess. With GEJ loosing Ondo my statistical model had given the election to Buhari. However should GEJ really win in Nasarawa , and then win in Adamawa and Taraba then it really becomes interesting and my analysis would then be for GEJ to win with a slim margin.

This is going to be tight, no wonder they are 'over cooking' the SS and SE results.

PLEASE , PLEASE Take a lot of early online results with a pinch of salt. By this evening a much clearer picture will start to emarge

So far there are no surprises both GEJ AND GMB are winning where we expected them to.

The real keys to this election as I've been saying are:

Oyo: I expect ACP to win but will PDP run them close
Kogi: Can PPD win there?
Adamawa and Taraba: Does PDP carry those 2 states and if so will it be by a large margin?
Lagos: Again ACP should win but will PDP get up to 40%?

The main thing for all to note is this. If PDP can get 40% in SW, 45-50% in NE, 50% in NC and about 85% in SE SS then GEJ is re-elected.

GMB really needs to make inroads in the SE/SS to win this election. Lets see how the results unfold

Don't worry they are still counting all the fish and shrimps that voted. Just wait SS votes will be like North Korea GEJ 99.9999 GMB 0.000001

bushdoc9919:
There goes our money.......

And meanwhile.....we have no light, no water and an oil dependent economy.

Whoever wins in March 2015....is going to be running austerity government by 2016.

Tighten your seat-belts Nigerians.....the final call for the time machine flight to the late 1980's is here. Gertscham jump......!


PDP....managing to ruin Nigeria's economy over 16 years.

I saw the 1980's many of these young ones have not they don't know whats coming.

You can expect massive inflation (As the currency falls in value)
Massive job losses.
Company shut downs(In the 80's nobody could believe when Kingsway shut down. Dont' be surprised to see shoprite seel up and leave in a few years)

Oil price will not see $80 dollars for years to come as their is an ongoing price way between the Saudi's and US shale producers. As usual Nigeria is not ready. Dark days ahead

daven:
There is nothing wrong with self servicing. I have been doing it since i was 16. I am now 31 and happily married with a healthy son and another baby on the way.. when you overdo it , your private organ becomes sore. But then the body recovers after due rest. I have not suffered memoryloss nor poor eyesight as have been previously alleged. I believe self servicing saves from contacting stds and hiv. You can also have healthy and meaningful rlships with girls as was my case. No worries bro.

Btw i forgot to add that sometimes i go more than 4 times day. Even till this morning i just had a quick one. This does not affect my sex with my wife , as i still fulfil my duties. I work offshore for 2 weeks at a go, so while my colleagues go for prostitutes in the swamp, i stay in my room and ma.sturbate. it hs kept me faithful to my wife, and my concience is clear.

A voice of reason and common sense!!

Dont listen to anybody who says you are harming youorself, na LIE!!. At your age twice a day is perfectly normal. Your hormones are ragging, it's actually healthy to discharge on a regular basis as build up can lead to prostrate cancer later in life. Enjoy yourself and dont' have any guilt feelings at all. Life is too short

The Kenyans are to blame for this. They operate an economy where their people are treated as second class citizens. All the major players in the Kenyan economic system (Safari owners, tourist operators, manufactures of essential commodities..etc) are either white or Asian.

I tell you my brothers and sisters, you don't know how lucky you are to be a Nigerian. There is no other country in Black Africa, where the indigenous people control so much of the economy. We have our problems, but we are head and shoulders above most of our brother African nations in this specific regard.

worry359:
Again lying get's a Nigerian in trouble when telling the truth would have passed him through.

You said that he had booked a hotel for buisness, if this is true.
Then he should have told UKBA that he had relations in UK. but had booked a hotel for buisness meetings and was not seeing them.

It's so simple but people would rather lie than tell the truth.
Then you blame UKBA for your failings.

My brother all blessings upon you.

I really don't understand Nigerians. The most simple question and the guy still goes to lie. They think the rest of the world works like lawless Nigeria where anything goes. Lying or giving incorrect information to an official is a crime. Period

Does he have his WASC certificate?

Buhari are you reading this?

Tinubu only cares about Tinubu nothing else!!

The logic of APC:
PDP is corrupt
PDP has destroyed Nigeria.

So what do we APC do?

We go round the country and woo PDP members to join us!!

And some people with a brain between their ears really call this CHANGE??

Elections are not won by the number of people who show up at rallies. They are not even won by the number of people who say 'I will vote for this candidate or that candidate'

I've been involved with Nigerian elections since the infamous verdict '83 in 1983 and I can tell you all without any fear of contradiction that the number 1 factor to winning an election in Nigeria is THE PARTY STRUCTURE ON GROUND.

Outside of the big cities, in all those small towns and villages where the majority of Nigerian actually reside who is goes round to gather the people, marshal them to the polling centers, in some cases instruct them exactly how to vote? Answer the local party workers. It is this ground game that in the end will determine the winner of the election, that's why for me I am giving it to GEJ(No bias) I think people will be very surprised by the results from the NE especially Adamawa. Remember the Army is in control of security in that area, and we all know the Army and PDP are bedfellows. Also I am yet to see strong evidence of a substantial ACP ground game in Adamawa and Taraba, in fact the PDP have won all recent elections in Adamawa despite that being the state of Atiku.

I would amend the OP's prediction to as follows:
Adamawa: GEJ
Taraba:GEJ
Ekiti:GEJ
Ondo:GEJ
Edo:GMB

How? Will you fight with Zeal for 4 weeks, then go to London for 2 weeks rest?

This is neither a pro GEJ or pro GMB post, just a call for some reflection:

Our inferiority complex sometimes knows no bounds. I find it quite insulting when Nigerians seems to think that the opinions of foreigners somehow carries more weight than anything else. Why is this so? Who is this writer for the Washington Times? How do we know he's not been approached and 'settled'.

Please my people if you must vote for either GEJ or GMB, do it based on your OWN opinion based on YOUR judgement of what's going on in the country and which man YOU think is better placed to move the country forward. NEVER let your opinion be swayed by the foriegn media, for the one thing you can be sure of is that, deep down they only have their own nations and paymasters interest at heart, never YOUR own.

The stupid US lawmakers should focus on trying to reign in their massive deficit and leave us along. Russia does not comment on our internal affairs, China does not comment on our internal affairs, why must these interfering Americans keep putting their noses into everybody business.

#WhereIsBuhari

Here we go again. This is how it was with Yar'dua. He would go away on official trip and then we won't seem for 4 weeks at a time. I really will never understand Nigerians. After everything we went through before, you would think we would insist that anyone vying for the top job in the land is 100% hale and healthy.

I am actually surprised people are not asking this question more forcefully. How can a major presidential aspirant be out the country for so long?

I wish Buhari no ill will and actually hope he's fine, but if you watch some of his recent interview on YouTube, the man looks very tired. Being President of Nigeria come May 2015 will not be an easy job. Let us hope that WHOEVER is there is up to the task.
#WhereIsBuhari

elbinmanny:
After all these noise Buhari will be speaking to himself

How to be 'A Buhari'

You debate with yourself.

You give address to yourself.

You produce you own WASC certificate for yourself.

Na wa for this 'Agent of Change' O. I beg I think it's now clear that it's best we stick with the devil we know in GEJ. He's not the best, but GMB seems to have NOTHING to offer and it's now clear he's just being put up as a proxy for Tinubu and co to get their greedy hands on the nations coffers

rhymaster:
Nigeria returned to democratic governance in 1999 and since then, the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) has been in power at the center. Nigeria has had its ups and downs since that time but what is the experience of Nigerian citizens? The Web Pollster is starting another opinion poll to gauge the mood of #nigerians regarding how they’ve fared in the past 6 years?

Are you better off now than you were 6 years ago before President #jonathan was sworn in as president after the death of President Umaru Yaradua? If the economy of a country is getting better, the people feel it before they see official published statistics. Are Nigerians living a higher quality of life now than before because they have access to better, good paying jobs, better healthcare, better education and infrastructure, power or electricity that has removed the need to invest in diesel generators? What is your perception of corruption in the country? Do you feel opportunity is being expanded for all or most of the opportunities in the land is limited to a privilege few who are in government?

Follow links in my signature, NL is blocking any information that does not or may not favour the current government.!!!

And yet the ACP happily welcomed 5 PDP governors into their fold in addition to such 'honest' , 'upstanding' PDP people like Bukola Saraki, and some people will try and come here and tell us that ACP is 'Change'. ACP/PDP all na the same!!

shiningshina:
The problem is that GEJ had the capacity to destroy Boko Haram but waited until the general elections were very near. His needless, perhaps malicious "wait", caused the deaths of 13,000 innocent Nigerians.

No he did not have the capacity. Our armed forces were not properly equiped for this type of conflict. They needed modern equipment, like night vision, mine resistant vehicles and drones. The west refused to supply this equipment for over a year, so we had to go to Russia and China. Now the equipment has arrived, the difference is clear. Please get your facts right.

Olaolufred:
I AM GLAD THAT GOODLUCK TOOK ACTION AT LAST.

I AM NOT HAPPY WITH GOODLUCK BECAUSE HE WAITED FOR 16,000 LIVES TO BE SACRIFICED BEFORE TAKING THIS ACTION.

WHY?

THIS SAME POWER OF C-IN-C WAS THERE ALL ALONG, BUT HE DECIDED TO PLAY POLITICS WITH BOKO HARAM.

NOW THAT THE FEELING OF RESENTMENT AGAINST HIS RESPONSE TO BOKO HARAM IS HIGH IN THE NORTH,

HE WAS FORCED TO WORK IN ORDER TO GAIN POPULARITY.

THIS IMPLIES THAT EBELLE IS SELFISH. ANYONE CAN DIE SO FAR YOU ACHIEVE YOUR POLITICAL GOAL.

FOR ME AND FAMILY, WE HAVE DECIDED. WETHER OUR DECISION IS FOR YOU OR SAI BABA,

WE WILL FIND OUT ON ELECTION DAY.

What nonsense are your pouring out? Was it today that GEJ has been trying to get weapons for the Army. Where you in a coma, when out of frustration we had to result to trying to buy arms on the black market in South Africa? Where you in hibernation when Israel wanted to sell us attack helicopters but America blocked them?
There has been an international conspiracy from the West to frustrate our war against BH, only Russia and China have shown themselves to be true friends. Now that the new equipment has arrived we can see the impact. This has nothing to do with re-election.
BTW the silence from the ACP to all the recent success of our military speaks volumes! Nigerians vote wisely!!

This is how they told us that Yar'dua was just resting and would soon return. Of course we know what happened.

Where have you heard of a presidential candidate resting for a week in the middle of the campaign. Moreso if has to rest why can he not rest in Katsina?

Fayose is a HERO of this election. He is fearless and is taking the war to the opposition. I love SW politicians they are the masters of Amala politics. Punch for punch.
Don't get me wrong I am not a GEJ supporter, but for me Nigerian politics is supposed to be EXCITING with colorful characters. Amechi, FFK, Dame Patience, Osho baba and Fayose all fit the bill. I want to see them launching verbal scud missles at each other from now till polling day.
But my people a word of caution, don't die for ANY of them O! Its not worth it. They know where they all meet up and drink and jolly together. It's all one big act , so don't give yourself high blood pressure on their behalf, just sit back, grab some popcorn and enjoy the fun

I am not watching live, but please if it is true that between 800,000 and 1 million PVC have not even arrived in the country then Jega MUST resign. He stood in front on the nation and said INEC was ready, the election was supposed to be last Saturday, is he now saying that approx 1 million people would have been dis-enfranchised?