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nuclearboy: If as you say, the SW rejects tyrants and tyranny, methinks they will reject a 2012 tyrant (fuel subsidy photos of General Sani Jonathan strike a nerve?) over one from 30 years ago!Ah well, that is to be seen. Yes, the subsidy thing will indeed be a pain in the neck for GEJ at election time. I guess that is why he has tried to put it in the cooler. If he wins a second term, be rest assured there will be full removal of subsidy and he will not look back. Any attempt to revisit the subsidy thing now will seriously hurt his 2015 campaign. Just the way Fashola gave Okada riders helmets and rode through the highways with them at his side during campaigns, only to ban Okada in his second term. Na so my broda. Make I go complete Chapter 14 of my book jaare. E too sweet. |
Wadeoye: He will not sell to who in the south? South West or South East?Well since you agree that Buhari cannot get anything from the SS or SE, then that leaves the SW as the only bone of contention, right? You say that he will get votes from the SW if ACN supports him. But I say that this is not true. The Ribadu precedent is there. He was the ACN candidate, and while the SW electorate went ahead to vote for ACN Governors and parliamentarians, they rejected the ACN Northern Presidential candidate in favour of GEJ. As far as I am concerned, Buhari is not any more palatable to the SW electorate than Ribadu was. If anything, the SW electorate have a strong tradition of rejecting perceived tyrants, and like I said before, I doubt that they would ever vote an ex-Military Head of State - not even Murtala Mohammed if he were alive - as president. Remember the OBJ case - a Yoruba man himself! - serially rejected by the SW electorate for same reasons. How much more likely is it then, that they would vote a northern ex military Head of State? As such, it seems to me that the entire south will still reject a Buhari Candidacy. Yes, I agree that the candidacy may have a chance in the SW with Fashola on board as running mate, but at best that will only split things up. There will still be large swathes that will reject the notion simply on account of Buhari. Especially as they know that the VP slot has no powers whatsoever. Finally, be careful about Fashola's popularity. I know very well that he has become deeply unpopular among the lower and poorer classes in Lagos for many of the recent measures he has taken - measures, which, of course, he would never have taken in his first term. At the very best, such a ticket will split the SW presidential vote. Many would still go for GEJ as opposed to Buhari, I tell you. This discussion has made me weary. It has made me feel that there is no real present hope to unseat PDP at the centre. |
Gbawe: Man mi, OK you win. Buhari is this and that. Thus he is disqualified by Deep sight and all the kingmakers and influential stakeholders, on the ground, are therefore compelled to comply from now henceforth. If Buhari emerges the candidate of the merger, what will all what you wrote here against the man have amounted to?Please note: I have not, via my arguments above, sought to say that he is not a realistic candidate. If anything, I already conceded that somewhere along the thread. My argument re: realistic; was limited to saying that he would not sell in the south. That's all I said as per 'realistic'. The arguments above are a tangent - and I acknowledged that I was digressing from the thread explicitly - I said so. My comments above are a tangent arising from your own comments in response to my tangential question: whether Buhari is a morally or historically apt choice for a self-respecting nation. This has little bearing on the thread; for which the question is who will make a realistic candidate with sufficient pull to un-seat the PDP at the Federal Level. From comments here, it seems Buhari is the leading option still. I already noted that since he also appears the only realistic option, that too, is a sad commentary on Nigeria and the limited space of Nigerian Politics. |
Le Stylo: It's quite obvious that the OP is more interested is judging the character and person of GMB after noting to his dismay that he remains the most popular candidate by public opinion. Even those who do not subscribe to his candidature can hardly figure out any option as formidable.I do not dispute. I merely entered into a tangent with Gbawe and Nuclearboy on the moral and historical propriety of his candidature. Its the same way I regard IBB's attempt in 2007 to be odious. Left to me, NO former military ruler should be considered for democratic office in Nigeria. On resumption as democratic President in 1999, OBJ did a VERY smart thing: he retired ALL serving military officers who had ever held any political office. There was deep wisdom in this, and we would do well to see the point therein. Today we have a largely apolitical military and that action is one of the reasons for that. Lastly, be careful when you equate NL popular opinion to the popular opinion of Nigeria in general. |
Sorry Anony, I am only just seeing this topic for the first time. I thought I have said everything I have to say on this matter. What else is there to add? |
I vote for Legislative reform of the CBN or in the alternative State Residency. Indigeneship. |
Nuclearboy - The foregoing post is for you as well. |
Gbawe: If you know me well here you will know that (1) I stick to contemporary politics here and refrain from historical events because it is an area bogged down by subjective interpretation to the extent those who were not there, like many on this forum, can speak vehemently and decisively in favour of the versions of events they wish to accept. Carrying on a debate with folks of such mentality is an exercise in futility. I therefore prefer to talk of things I understand completely and can speak on devoid of conjecture.I have heard this said by people and it never ceases to amaze me. You see; this is one of the problems we have with our way of thinking in this country: the willful determination NOT to take responsibility for our actions and particularly our in-actions. My dear brother I would expect you of all people to see concisely into this: and just so that we may not dribble this way and that, I will adumbrate the issues here, for which you and others seek to exculpate Buhari, as he does himself: but which must not be heard for by any right-thinking and honest society - 1. Wilfull acceptance of the proceeds or results of a crime renders one an accessory after the fact and thus complicit in the crime 2. The act of taking over the government of Nigeria by unconstitutional means was, at the time perpetuated, an act of criminal treasonable felony. 3. Buhari as the most senior officer in the Military knew this. 4. Haven been "invited" to partake in the act (and of course he did participate in the final stages by making himself available publicly as the new Head of State - - - it is really beyond imagination, that when it is said, that it is treason to take over the Government by unconstitutional means; that "accepting" an illegal invitation so to do; does not amount to "taking over the Government by illegal means" - only Nigerians can imagine such an incongruity to be a valid excuse for treason!). 5. If at all it may be argued, as many have, that he had no choice but to accept, otherwise he would have lost his head; then this fact is obviated by the fact that he was made commander-in-chief: and therein had full powers to repudiate the coup and deal with the offending officers - a fact which cannot be denied for the evident reason that he turned out to be a very strong minded and stubborn leader - and as such it cannot be claimed that he could not have dealt with his subordinates if he had chosen to: and restored constitutionality. This further shows him to have happily accepted the illegality that he had become involved in. Indeed, the statement by the same officers that he was "rigid and uncompromising" shows clearly that he was fully in charge and not taking orders from anybody, even if acting in council. I will give one example of this truth: although it lies within the take-over of a military government, the principle remains the same: when Dimka's coup was put down, why did the officers loyal to the government act the way they did to put the coup down? That's right - because of their responsibility and loyalty to the government. Now what would you say of such responsibility and loyalty if the officers that so acted, had rather thrown up ththeir hands and said - we have been invited to head the new Government. Worse - if the proper government comes back to power - what would be its view of the actions of those who "accepted to head the new government"? ? ? Seriously, Gbawe. Now I have stated all the foregoing not because i needed to: and members of a sensible society should know these to be inherently true: I have stated them simply on account of the very shocking notion bandied about by many that Buhari bears no responsibility for the coup in question. As an army officer, his constitutional duty was to protect the state and the government: as such, it is egregiously contradictory to state that after the government he is sworn to protect is illegally attacked and removed, he then abandons his duty to "accept an invitation" to become head of the then illegally established Government. That acceptance is the last and final and most important aspect of the coup, and nobody can argue otherwise. Indeed, people are co-opted into coups at various statges - he was co-opted at the last stage - to take over as Military Head of State. That amounts to being part of the coup at its final stage. Nobody can argue otherwise. Now in saying all this, I have not even touched upon his human rights record - which any one should know is incompatible with the idea of an officer and a gentleman - not to speak of a democratically inclined gentleman. Finally, Gbawe: I am not particularly moved by your statement regarding not commenting on History much for one simple reason: you say you were not there. However the simple fact of life is that you are also not there to observe the generality of current affairs either. The same way you read history and watch it on TV and listen to the accounts of those who were there, is EXACTLY the same way you read current affairs in the papers, and watch it on TV and listen to the accounts of those who were there. Period. |
^^^Ah well, will revert later. |
Wadeoye: Say whatever you like, it is either Buhari/fashola or Buhari/oshiomole. Nothing will change that and the whole of south west, north and a few se/ss who want sanity in Nigeria are waiting impatiently for campaign to begin in 2014.To be honest, all of this simply renders apparent that which is intrinsically wrong with this nation. Indeed, a people get the leadership they deserve. |
Eziachi: Why do you guys kept up with this lies? Its on record that Buhari had never planned or participated in any coup in Nigeria. Why do kept thinking that by keeping this lies going that one day it will becomes the truth?You say he has never planned or participated in any coup. That is a very odd statement, which only a Nigerian is capable of making. Please note the two words I highlighted in red; and take note of their different connotations. At all events, being the emergent Head of State through the self same coup, the burden of proof should rest on you, or anybody else, who asserts that he had no part in the coup, to show why this is so, and adduce the "historical facts" that make this so. Not that you would. |
thelonestranger: A woman from a particular part of this country did a sad thing to me . Knowing that I am a market JJC she sold me a large bag of Semovita at an inflated price. As this was not enough when i got home I found that the product was expired, the bag was also damaged and had been carefully taped with selotape,. As a consequence, the product was full of insects inside. In fact it is not possible to tell whether there was nothing else in the bag apart from the bag other than the inedible oxygenated product. I was not one to go back to create a fuss, so I took my disappointed family out to lunch elsewhere , since I could very well afford that. But my curse remained in my mind for this evil woman who I am sure will perish in her poverty. Just imagine selling this sort of thing as food for someone. I could very well have lost my entire family as a consequence. I have long stopped buying things from people from this part of the country , especially motor parts and electrical stuff, and especially medicine. They don't seem to care about human life at all which is so bad.Haba. God go punish this woman and her family.Do not wish her ill. Just let it go. No need to curse her into poverty. Poverty it probably is, which makes her sell old goods in the first place. A terrible practice, of course. At best if you visit that place again, caution her against such practices. It is well. |
Wadeoye: Dont bring any minority rubbish into this. No way for GEJ in 2015. Nigerians are coming together to rescue their country by ensuring capable people are put in aso rock regardless of religion and ethnicity.And also regardless of the treasonable past of such people. O kare o. |
Gbawe: At the end of the day, after all the back and forth, there will be a solid bloc vote for Buhari from the politicians themselves. We should all remember that non of us here can influence that stage of things. It is likely most opposition Politicians , especially those who will be spending their money and deploying their political machinery expensively , will simply conclude it is easiest to leverage on the goodwill Buhari enjoys in the North and match that with a popular and proven performer from the South. This would appeal to pragmatic men and women more than the notion of gambling on an experiment that involves building up Ribadu, El Rufai et al. For those mentioning Southerners as Presidential candidate, I can confidently tell them to forget it and face reality. Any merged entity will settle for Northern President/Southern VP.Alrite. Permit me to ask a question which is actually a deviation from the thrust of this thread. For this thread, we are discussing realism and realistic prospects. However, let me just digress slightly to inquire from you if you personally believe it is apt, moral, proper, historically acceptable, conscionable and respectful to ourselves as a nation - to parade or elect a former military coupist as a presidential candidate in this country - a coupist who overthrew the last democratic government in this country? |
nuclearboy: Use the same criteria to judge - if Buhari, who accepted to take over a rapidly failing country and went ahead to restore to a great extent our pride as a nation in 21 months, should have hanged, tell us what should have happened to the man who seceded and cost 3 million lives because he didn't want the oppression that was the order of the day then!Frankly I am shocked and utterly gobsmacked that you would state that Buhari's treason of 1983 "restored pride to our nation". This statement is so bewildering that I cannot fathom a response. Not even in light of the truncation of the young democracy - which led to 16 of the darkest years in Nigeria's history. O kare o. |
When we have Nlanders expressing surprise at the very well known fact that malaria is not transmitted by male mosquitoes, then there is a serious problem with the Education sector in this country nowadays. |
@ Naijababe, I hear you, but please remember the key word is "realistic" for the opposition to have cross-country appeal. Left to me, those would not be my suggestions. If zoning was not an issue in Nigeria I would immediately pick something like Fashola-Pat Utomi |
[size=16pt]Alternate Demonic Suggestion from the pit of hell, just revealed to me in a vision: Presidential Candidate: Hamza Al-Mustapha Vice-Presidential: DSP Diepreye Alamayeseigha[/size]
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Has everyone noticed how odious Atiku's name has become. Not a single person even dares suggest him. I guess this is because of the very heavy toga of corruption (proven or not) that seems to follow him about like a shadow. There are also other reasons I guess. Such as his draining struggle with Obasanjo, his cross-carpeting twice as well. Another reason could be his very unsportsmanlike vitriol against Jonathan in the 2011 PDP primaries. At all events, it appears that everyone seems to have ruled him out. Good. I simply see him as the epitome of business as usual. Anyway, talking about realistic options, its high time I threw my hat in the ring. However these suggestions may hinge on capturing certain key PDP players (which I admit in itself may not be so realistic!) - How about these suggestions - [Current PDP members are highlighted in Blue] P: El-Rufai or Nuhu Ribadu - VP: Peter Obi P: El Rufal or Nuhu Ribadi - VP: Fashola P: Bukola Saraki - VP: Peter Obi P: Sule Lamido - VP: Fashola P: Mohammed Buba Marwa - VP: Fashola What do you make of the above suggestions? |
miredia: My friend, I resolutely followed your post and the subsequent posts herein. It is unequivocally clear that you had shut your mind to oppositional views prior to inquiring for a public opinion about this subject. Your expectations were fixated and void ofMind you, I personally do not subscribe to a Buhari candidacy - but the thread is not about my personal subscription. The thread is about realistic options for the opposition and in that regard, Buhari may be a liability in terms of securing southern votes. I concede though, that he will be a good candidate to sweep northern votes. I also concede that he will be good for anti-corruption. |
Candybob: My candidate for presidency is Osho baba!The question is not who can be sold to you, but rather who can be realistically sold to the nation - competitively and comprehensively enough to unseat PDP at the centre? So far, this thread has disclosed no real answer - except Buhari/ Fashola. In all fairness, although I regard a Buhari candidacy as immoral and improper, I must say that in terms of realism, such a ticket so far seems the only ticket capable of sweeping the entire North and Most of the West. They will get zilch in the SE and SS though. And if by any chance GEJ rounds off the middle-belters, and a little of the west, then one could be possibly looking at a very close election indeed. |
I am somewhat saddened that the Admin would endorse this thread for the front-page. It is an offensive question in the first place. Good and bad people exist in every religion, tribe, society and nation. To ask a question whether good people exist in a particular religion is seriously offensive to that religion. This thread ought to be deleted without further ado. My thoughts. |
Minex007: My suggestions is for El Rufa'i/Fashola Ticket.Let Buhari and Tinubu be the Political God Fathers while they concentrate on south east south south region ,let them push for the change.Fair enough. I had been expecting this suggestion. Took three pages to arrive. Any other Northerners who you think can also be suggested realistically? |
Well I must say that one unfortunate reality that is emerging from this thread is the paucity of realistic options for an opposition presidency in 2015. IF Buhari (as seems to be the case from the generality of comments here) is the only realistic opposition option, in a nation of 250 tribes and 160 million people - after 16 years of Democracy - and a full 32 years after the same Buhari took power as Military Head of State; well, that just says a lot for the very sad and limited space in Nigerian Politics. It also says worse about we Nigerians ourselves: namely that our enlightenment is not yet what we imagine - we still remain grossly unenlightened and "un-emancipated:" otherwise there would be no reason why newer fresher options would not by now have become "realistic" enough for us. Quite sad really. |
My dear brother; Gbawe: Buhari is not "controversial" in the North. He did well in the North in 2011. His 'Achilles heel' is the image problem he has in the South. That can always be worked on by pairing him with a popular Southern achiever like Fashola. In all of this, let us not forget that Buhari is a huge vote-winner in the North. Buhari is not my first choice but I would not mind him in 2015 at all because of two things.There are candidates in every part of the country that can sweep their own regions; just as you have said of Buhari here. Thus when I ask for a realistic candidate, I am looking for one who can sweep more than just his region - and would also not become a source of vote-loss in other regions. You know as well as I do that Buhari, come what may, can hardly ever get up to 1 per cent of the SE and SS votes. Even the SW will be wary of him; I doubt the SW will ever go for a northern ex-military dictator as Presido. I seriously doubt it. Mixing the ticket does not help too much in this instance because everyone is aware that the Vice-President has no powers - save that which the President delegates to him. Buhari picked a pastor as his running mate in 2011 exactly to mitigate his religious-bigotry perception in the public eye. Did it work? Not at all. He only won in Northern Islamic states and not a single southern state voted for him notwithstanding. I honestly believe that, admirable as his anti-corruption credentials may be, he, (in addition to lacking any moral right to participate in Nigeria's democracy); will ever remain un-electable in this country. People with great prospects for the future like Fashola would do well to distance themselves from a ticket with Buhari, I tell you. Next, when we speak of being realistic: and here; I know I am waxing slightly Machiavellian - but when we speak about realism, we must consider this as well - the "establishment" would work FAR more vociferously against a Buhari Presidency, and as such, its chances of materializing would be much slimmer. The Establishment in this country would go to ANY and EVERY length against such a presidency - they would work FAR harder against it than against any other candidate. Here is the reason: they know very well that the minute Buhari is sworn in, most of them are headed for long terms in prison. (2) I envisage he will be the character to do what Nigeria needs more than anything else. The deployment of square pegs in square holes. He is one of the few characters amongst our prominent Politicians who will fearlessly give the radical leaders of tomorrow a chance. We will see appointments like Femi Falana as AGF and Ribadu as Petroleum Minister. Buhari will likely seek to succeed on the template of using proven achievers and men of principles. He will then provide the protection that will allow these guys get on with the job of transforming Nigeria. Anyone who is dedicated to doing that ,as President, will resolve most of the major problems of Nigeria in record time. That is what we want instead of the naff gradualism of the PDP.Here, I agree with you, but I must note that I am strictly speaking realistic options; not just desirable options. |
Demdem: Many of those perceptions have no basis. Quite a lot has been brainwashed. Imagine someone saying he physically saw Buhari kill corpers. Don't u think such have a problem.Lol, come on, no one ever said that, come on! Buhari personally killing corpers? Lol. |
0lumide: Buhari/Fashola is the best you can think of.Why risk a controversial candidate at all if you are determined to seize the presidency from the PDP? Why not shop for someone without such "baggage"? |
Wadeoye: Keep deceiving yourself. If acn aligns and campaign for buhari, he will win all the votes. Buhari didnt campaign in south west in 2011 likewise in other parts of the south because of the resources required to do this. Buhari doesnt have the money and all he needs is for acn to deliver south west afterall they wikl be stakeholders in the merger. So things will be diff.I honestly dont see the SW ever voting Buhari, even if Tinubu and Fashola both make a personal visit to every house to request such. And how many states did Gej win in the north in 2011? Can you name a few and the nunber of votes he got there?Well here is what transpired. As you can see, GEJ won several states in the North - the Middle belt mainly.
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Gboliwe: How would a Rochas/Fashola ticket sell?To be honest, I am shocked at your recommendation of Rochas for a realistic chance of the opposition claiming the presidency. Even for an unrealistic chance sef, I would still be shocked at your suggestion. |
@Wadeoye, are you sure about your analysis? 1. PDP will still take large portions of the north - as happened in 2011 if Buhari contests. The reason is simple - there is the middle-belt - which would mostly vote GEJ over a Buhari for one million reasons. Secondly even the core north may be divided, as we are seeing presently. 2. I do not believe that the SW will ever go for Buhari just because of a party alliance. In 2011 THEY rejected Ribadu in favour of GEJ in spite of the fact that Ribadu was the ACN candidate. That should tell you something about the SW electorate. In fact, their serial rejections of Obasanjo also proves that the savvy SW electorate are very unlikely to vote for any former military dictator altogether. 3. Do you not think that it would be wiser, if the presidential ticket must be Northern, to go for a younger, fresher candidate who is not tainted by entrenched perceptions of bigotry (whether true or false) and persisting suspicion and controversy? I admire Buhari's stance on anti-corruption, although I personally dont believe he has a moral right to seek democratic office in Nigeria seeing that he truncated the 2nd Republic with an act of treasonable felony. Nevertheless that is not really the point here. I am speaking about realistic chances of unseating the PDP; and it seems apparent to me that the opposition will not have such a chance if Buhari is its flagbearer. Besides, let me ask the question: when the SAME candidates are thrown up year in year out for an election, there is the suggestion that it is more about the ego and personal ambition of such leaders than about any genuine desire for change. Have you ever asked yourself why John Kerry did not come back as Democratic Flagbearer after losing to Bush? Why Al Gore did not come back after losing to Bush? You see there is something in this fact which shows that for them, it is more about their ideologies in power, than in the desperate, perennial insistence on coming back to contest. Are there no others? |
[quote author=ndu_chucks]Buhari/Fashola or Buhari/Ngige. Buhari's regime will ensure that corruption is curbed to a manageable level. If that's all he accomplishes in his first term, all other things being equal, that's good enough for me. Fashola and Ngige can take it from there.[/quote]I said realistic. Do you think Buhari can realistically win a presidential election in this country? Mind you, I am not saying anything about his desirability. I am speaking about the facts on the ground in terms of public perception. It seems to me that large swathes of Nigeria have entrenched perceptions about Buhari that may render him permanently un-electable as a democratic president of this country - even with the freest and fairest election ever. Do you think that Ngige is presidential material in the eyes of non-south-east Nigeria - especially after the Okija fiasco? |
thelastPope: They should do an IQ test for these house of reps members. They are totally disgusting. You mean they are aware of this mess and did nothing for over 2 years now? So what is the work of the committee then? The man is indicting himself terribly. Their work is oversight. SO admiting that he is aware of the decay and havent done anything about it for 2 years is enough reason to recall him from the house. what a shameful statement to make. I guess he is not happy that the president has gone to see it for himself and has made them look very stup1d!Made who look st.upid? Whose job is it to administer the security logistics of this country? Frankly, I like the idea of surprise visits. Nonetheless Uncle Jo could hardly claim to be in the dark about what a typical police station/ barracks/ school looks like in this country. He has lived in Nigeria for about 50 years of his life before becoming President, so he should not come and form oyinbo for us. Of course he knew and has always known the state of these facilities. The fact is that the documentary left him feeling embarrased and he had to do something to make it appear that he is urgently concerned. Period. The Move is hollow, unless drastic reforms follow his visit. Starting with the peeps who rented out the grounds for a party. . . |
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