₦airaland Forum

Raalsalghul:
Finally the Tories have shifted from Immigration to Public Benefits.

No more bashing of International students doing "Mickey Mouse" degrees.

Where Hustla self?

Lol.. the interesting part is going online and seeing folks who typically blame immigrants for everything suddenly start talking about 'punching up' now that the next low hanging fruit is being targeted simply cos the demographic involved here is different. What next? perhaps limiting state pension to only those whose parents were Brits.

An immigrant recently asked me 'what is mental health'. The person don hear am for news tire but didn't comprehend. I tell no worry, after 5 years (ILR) u sef go sabi about mental health.

lavida001:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yNo5yaExAXw
I’m happy Rishi is trying to get those on benefits back to work. They have become very lazy and over relying on this benefits and I think it’s unfair to migrants who pay taxes/ IHS with no recourse to public funds.

The benefits system is a maze the drivers might be contentious, but the trend is clear. I remember stating a while back to ask any GP you know how far with fit notes.

2.8 million and rising on longterm sick. Irrespective of the cause, someone has to pay for their welfare. A fast rising significant part of the central and local governments budget goes to social care, state pension and universal credit. Those in affected counties are already feeling it.

Ultimately, the statement by Hunt captures it well- work should pay.

Zahra29:
...
Nurses also used to get bursaries to study which encouraged many into the profession.
If the UK government decides to reinstate the nursing bursaries or subsidise tuition fees for all or some courses e.g. teaching, STEM, medical degrees etc , to address chronic labour challenges in those sectors, then it's in their gift to do so and I don't see why it should be a problem.

Afterall even the Nigerian government, despite the myriad of economic challenges it faces, still manages to subsidise tuition costs for medical degrees.

Interesting there was a big jump in the number of nursing students when the bursary was scrapped. One wonders if a reintroduction would not cause a reversal.

Nigeria subsidizes education (and petrol) at a baseline for every student (not exclusively medical students). Every country has a social budget- the main points are first, what percentage of public money is spent on social interventions. Secondly, what are those social interventions and most importantly is there an equitable and progressive distribution?

okposm:
I dont know the HR never met them for a day. They never called directly. Even during documentation i dont think any of them attended to me. If the hr is in that building i dont know the floor. If they call hr those ones will say they need staff number. I dont want them to come and meet to remind me of data policy issues. it is not spie work but as with most govt dept deal with the public. I have started looking for another house.
The landlord wrote something that looks like i am lying.

I will call them up tomorrow to see if they are good with the info they have. Assuming i have a payslip, i would have just blurred some parts and send it to them.

Asking for evidence of employment/reference is what most landlords would request moreso for a sought after property.

It takes alot to evict a non-paying tenant hence estate agents/landlords want to get it right.

Whoever handled your employment should be able to advise or provide you a letter. Even if na mi5 you dey work, they'd have a cover department they can use as such requests are largely common place.

Streetinvestor2:
Guy leave people to be living in what ever conspiracy theories.


They should tell us what has changed since last year at black market price of 750 and today. Infact it should be less than 750 as of today since the demand for dollars has dropped as per dangota refinery,UK policy for tertiary education and cleared backlog on forex.

This is why I don't equally believe the rubbish on subsidy on fuel has returned. Is government sourcing its dollars from black market or official window since it is only nnpc importing the fuel.Who can say the value attached to dollars for the importation of fuel..The true value of dollars should be below #750 black market price the government met it.At what price did banks reevaluate thr dollars .

You sound too emotional. I've learned that when I get too emotional in defending a viewpoint then I'm like missing something. Economic policies are not about emotion or what I want.

First the debacle with the naira was well set in stone 2-3 years ago. When you had people accessing usd at well below market rates and dumping them into the market, the outcome was clear.

Like I said above, against what many think, the actual exchange rate is less of our problem. What we need is a stable/fairly predictable rate and the right macroeconomic policies.

awesomeJ:
@jedisco,
Your points are valid...

.

No objections to the most part.

You mention policies- ultimately, its the past govts policies that led us here. Reason why I've hardly raised the current CBN gov yet. I have no reason to believe Cardoso has done badly given the stick he was dealt. The issue is those who defend these policies without cause. While Emefiele was reeling out his policies, lots even on this thread defended them. We were told it was 'smugglers' driving the exchange up while same person was boasting about how much his BDC friends were making from round-tripping. Even till date, many can't link the connection between the subsequent debacle and the actions of the previous govt.

I have held that as this govt has taken a different approach to the economy than the last then ultimately, I expect outcomes should be different.

When I say defend, its not just about money. Yes, money was spent but alot of macroeconomic policy changes were made when the naira crossed 1500. The result has been felt. The exchange rate means little what's more important is a stable rate and low inflation.

Lastly, people keep mentioning diesel like its a silver bullet. Yes, its very important but in 2024 moreso with our population growth, refining oil we produce and stopping there is hardly going to put us on the world stage. We need same self sufficiency in agriculture, textile, basic tech, transport all occuring at same time

sholadele4:
Seniors on this thread, I started living in the UK almost 2 years ago and I'm finally working towards getting a mortgage. I would like to know if my credit history from Nigeria plays a role in this process.

Hehe... what happened in 9ja... U dey owe banks money?

Dum20:
I spoke with a banker friend of mine, who told me that it was Binance that was manipulating the naira rate.

That because a lot of unofficial transactions were going through Binance, Binance was able to influence the exchange rate.

Now that Binance is banned the CBN became the biggest supplier of forex.

So lets watch by how much, the CBN can control the market.

I have to give them kudos for having the balls to take on Binance.

It's not that clearcut though.

A few years back it was Abokifx that was blamed. Now Binance.

Binance was a fringe player initially when BDCs were still active. When the CBN started all the rigmarole and naira4dollar scheme e.t.c looking to force remittances through a lower than market rate, Binance traffic grew and it became the defacto source of matket rates.

You know soon enough, the Binance traffic would move elsewhere (it's already moving). Binance was easier to take down as they had local offices. Most other crypt0 exchanges do not have local offices.
Right now, there is good supply and the exchange is based on the interbank rate and rate at which CBN supplies BDCs. If that changes, the market would sense it.

Banks also played a role. Why is difficult for banks to set up remittance platforms or make paying in forex straightforward? The last time they did, they stashed the forex oversees and didn't repatriate them.

Acidosis:
I will be waiting. I need that N700/$1 more than anyone else.

No need stressing over these things. Macroeconomic capabilities are not rocket science.

CBN threw loads at to defend the naira at 1500. This was well predictable a few werks back. I remember stating that.

Ultimately I think 1k would be a tough nut to crack. We might get a few dips below but finally settle above.
Just like with mose previous rounds of devaluation and CBN intervention where wide irrational swings are followed by a period of calm in which underlying market drivers then determine the next move.

In the coming months, I expect the currency to stabilise above 1k (happy to be proved wrong). What happens next would not be based on emotions but underlying market principles. If the government has got it right with the economy, the currency would reflect that.

I for one would be quite glad if local growth in our economy can lead to either rapid wage rise or a drop in exchange as people have had less and lesss in real terms over the last decade.

Adunnishugar:
Well she doesn’t have a fixed salary, she’s self employed sometimes she make 800 and sometimes it could be more or less, but she wants to start paying her self a fixed salary (from her business account to savings) for the purpose of the visa application, so technically it’s not a lie. I just want to know how much salary would be reasonable considering that she’s planning to show a three months bank statement with a balance of 3 million.

Like you are aware, she and her business are different entities. If she is not including her business but rather stating she is employed by the business then her case should be like any other employee. Her 'job' could then be a tie back home.

First is having reasonable savings at the onset of the statement.
Secondly you need to consider how much she's reporting as her budget for the trip. A relatively short stay should cut down expense. Overall, it's better not to exceed 3x her monthly pay. You could decide she'd stay with you to cut down on accommodation expense.

If she pays herself salary from a business account and has tax deducted payslips to back it up then one wouldn't expect an issue with that.
Also, there should be regular spending from her account to show its in use and being spent from.

When I initially applied for my visit visa, I had to 'prepare' my account. I ensured the opening balance was reasonable and tailored monthly expenditure from my account for a while. Aside regular living expense and some purchases, any other major expense (incl some application fees) were paid from a different source. I mentioned my job among others as my home connection. Also including my appointment letter.

Zahra29:
Or maybe both the UK government and universities should take lessons from their European neighbours , such as Germany , where tuition fees are free or very heavily subsidised for their citizens.

Or even Scotland next door with free tuition but also higher income tax and lower thresholds. Ultimately, in macroeconomics there is no such thing as 'free'. Every largesse has to be paid for.

Timmi:
The inflation rate in Nigeria is artificial and it is a reflection of the greed in human nature - Man's inhumanity to man. Initially it was exchange rate, now that the rate has come down, you will expect cost of goods to follow suit, but no. Fuel will soon be trending down, Diesel already started the downward trend. Naturally, the cost of goods should follow this trend, but Nigeria don't follow economic logic simply because of the sabotage in the system.

I've followed the current inflation curve and rather than blame the everyday Nigerian/akara seller chasing survival, those in charge of macroeconomic policies should be held to account. A single round-trip under PMB and Emefiele would have had more effect on the naira than 10,000 akara sellers increasing the price of their items.

Truth is that inflation once entrenched is sticky and takes alot of fight to stabilise and then drive down. Few years back, there used to be an upto 3 month lag between devaluation and widespread rise of goods. People were largely forced to as price of everything else had increased. As the govt continued with senseless economic policies and further devaluation, that interval became shorter as people got wiser. It's the last person that increases that's burnt the most.

Inflation should drop in coming months- An increase in bank account savings rate should help. Things like electronics should drop first. Food and rent tend to be the most sticky. But also remember that a drop in inflation does not mean a drop in prices but that the rate at which they're going up is reducing.

Zahra29:
The government has to strike a balance that also takes into consideration affordability for UK students, especially those from middle and working class backgrounds. If universities were allowed to charge what they wanted, with no cap in place, it would very quickly become unattainable for the majority from the above backgrounds, or become like the US where many are shackled by student loan debt for most of their working lives.

Before the Tories came into power, university fees were paid by the government and many students paid little to nothing. So to go from that to graduating with c30k student debt is already seen as unfair.

In a country with an and increasingly narrow fiscal headroom. Someone has to pay for every largesse.

As it unfolds, certain things have become obvious.

1. Fees from international student form an important part of universities revenue. More importantly- about the only pie they have significant control over.

2. There are a limited number of folks out there willing to stand on the 'student mill', hand over thousands of pounds, receive insults while at it and be chucked out at the other end with only a piece of paper and no reasonable pathway to stay.

Many govt regulated rates minimum wage, utility bills, transport fees move up yearly sometimes with inflation. The increasing expenditure of unis would ultimately have to be borne by someone. Its either one or a mix of govt increasing funding, unis increase efficiency/cut down massively or unis look for funding elsewhere.

awesomeJ:
What we're saying is investing in naira assets vs HOLDING USD purely for speculation.

The fact that this is even up for debate should be worrying enough.

Itsrm:
Those who think banks will have any significant reduction in profit this year will be shocked.

Those banks have perfected the art of making money.

The issue is that they are allowed to make huge sums at the expense of the real economy. Practically just making loads from currency fluctuations while stifling growth.
More annoyingly, their services are hardly decent wit branches limited to major cities or towns, long queues and lots of unserviced atm machines.

Their regulator - the CBN oversight agencies like the National assembly should also be held responsible.

BTW, why has CBN not mandated banks to raise interest rate on savings account moreso with the recent rise?

Banks have swiftly raised interest on their loan offerings. The huge spread between CBN interest from TBs and customer saving rates offers an economic blackhole for these institutions to make lots of money without any additional benefit or productivity to the economy.

Reminds me of the UK parliament recently querrying bank bosses for not raising their savings rates for customers fast enough in line with the Bank of England rate hike but rather keeping the profits to themselves. Better savings rates would encourage saving and hopefully put downward pressure on inflation

Tinyemeka:
1 year: 20%! Father lord!

Meanwhile UK people see 6% and are jumping up and down as if they won the lottery.

This life sef.

Hehe... also bring in how much interest people in Argentina are 'enjoying'. Mentioning interest rate without inflation is moot.

Using your example, someone in the UK who choses to invest today at 6% rather than spend should in a years time be able to purchase same item they were looking to buy today with some change to spare. This is because their inflation is below that rate and falling.

Same person in Nigeria who choses to invest at 20% may be unable to purchase in 1 yr what he/she was looking to buy today. This is because our inflation is abt 30% and rising. The interest becomes positive if the CBN can get it above inflation or get inflation down.

Overall, we should rather be worried our interest rate is running that high when that of every sensible economy is at least half. The CBN is not sharing 'enjoyment'.

awesomeJ:
The point is comparing the returns between holding idle dollars for speculative purposes for 7 years versus holding naira assets in thesame period.

Also 20% per annum yield on naira assets isn't that far off. Tbill yields through2019 we're at about 22%, commercial papers, bonds stocks etc are other options TRANSCORP did close to 1000%
last year alone, so 20% is actually conservative.

I don't see this as an argument to be had. It's not a direct comparison.

In investing, I first of all pick a strong market before then seeking strong players. The point being missed is that the continued and predictable devaluation of the naira over decades has already gives folks invested in strong currencies a headstart.

Very few investors outperform the index they are invested in. I'm not cherry picking stocks as I can walk into any market and pick a stock that has done 10x even when the market is languishing. The comparison shd be- would 1 million invested in Nigerian stocks via an index (if it exists) in say 2017 have outperformed same amount invested in the S&P or global index in 2017 and left till date?

In other news.. UCLAN looking to cut 5% of its workforce.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lancashire-68744810

This government or the next needs to look at raising uni fees which has remained at £9,250 since 2017 to better support unis. I wonder why local uni fees (like most other things) does not rise with inflation.

teeebest:
Mortgage Advice.

Hello Elders, we are on tier 4 presently. Our visas will expire next month. My wife and I both work with the NHS and we are expecting our COS any time soon. We clocked two years in the UK in February and we started viewing properties in our area.

We maxed out our savings with moneybox. We recently saw a property we love and started the process with a moneybox mortgage adviser. He sent us this qoute:
• The lender is Skipton Building Society
* The mortgage loan amount is £126,000
* The rate is fixed for 2 years @ 6.19%
* There is no lender arrangement fee to pay
* The mortgage term is 25 years
* The mortgage is on a repayment basis
* Your monthly mortgage repayments are £825.66

Is this reasonable or we should wait and switch our visa to Tier 2(probably this month end/early May) and retry if we can get a better offer/rate please?

This is rather steep

First is your mortgage advisor able to search the whole market or just a select lenders? They should tell you this.

Secondly, the two main issues which affect your mortgage rate outside the Bank of England base rate (which you dont control), are your LTV (what percentage cash you have) and your term (fixed, variable e.t.c)
BOE rates are likely to fall over the coming years. At the max of rates hikes, 6% was considered steep. If locking in now, I'd target much lower

Many folks on visas use Barclays. Even their 90% ltv is well below 6%
https://www.barclays.co.uk/mortgages/fixed-rate-mortgage/

On a wider note, as a first time buyer, you have the advantage of not paying stamp duty in most cases plus help to buy bonus. The advice is usually to buy asap but this may not fit everyone. If your rent is reasonably priced, and you're both in stable jobs, sometimes waiting a bit to build your deposit so you can go for a good house in a nice area with good prospects for capital appreciation. In every town, there are parts to avoid and no need buying only to start planning a move in 1-2yrs. Reason I say this is because a mortgage of 126,000 (except you have a good deposit) is unlikely to give you a good place in most parts of the country.

Meogom:
So there's this stuff people at my work place claim, about £140 pounds tax relief for washing your uniform, they said I could apply for it too. I've gone through it and I tick all the boxes, but I don't know if it's public fund and if I'm entitled to it. Make 140 quid no go purge belle. Please does anyone know about it and am I safe to go ahead with it.
Note: I'm on skilled worker dependent visa

It's not public funds

awesomeJ:
Some people think the fact that we're using FPI money is an issue. The fact is dollars will always flow into the economy, but it's better to get them in at #1000 instead of at #2000.

Remittances for instance regardless of exchange rate, at least $20bn will still flow in.

If they're exchanged at #1000, money supply grows by 20trn, if at #2500, it grows by 50trn,

So while we may expend $1bn on interests and capital gains to FPIs, we're saving 30trn in excess money that would have added huge inflationary pressures.

Also, with naira assets looking more attractive, there's a significant decrease in thirst for using USD as a store of values by resident Nigerians, this is driving down demand for USD, and perhaps increasing supply with some individuals now incentivised to sell off their USD positions and make better returns on naira assets.

I agree with your last paragraph in addition to the hidden fact that the recent UK immigration change has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of students going for masters abd hence less chase for forex.

However, the first section on FPIs and money supply is convoluted. The CBN printed (i.e increased our money supply) by over 50 trillion in the last few years. Was this done due to increased forex inflow?

awesomeJ:
20% compounded over 5 years = 358%.
Those who kept their 520 dollar in 2017 and waited till 2024 can now sell at 1100 only 212%.

As long as your dollar is lying idle, speculation will always underperform.

You're comparing apples to oranges

What local investment instruments would have given a reasonably safe 20% yield between 2017 and 2024?

What would be the return today if that dollar converted in 2017 was invested in the S&P or a global index?

Have you seen what Argentina' interest rate is? Argument could be made to move all investments to Argentinian Peso

LordAdam16:
You make valid points.
But there are reasons to treat this differently.

.....
The Germans check that box. The only other folks I'll call for this are the Americans, Japanese, or South Koreans.

....
As to the details of the loan.
The loan is provided by the world's largest national developmental bank.
Rates are typically single-digit. The EU has some of the lowest rates on the planet.
As regards a default, the Europeans have a long history of being open to debt reconstruction and relief.

Will we have gotten a better deal from China. Absolutely.
That does not make this a bad deal.
Some could argue diversifying our loan base is the smart thing to do.

I see your point many are valid. We should be able to scrutinise this deal in same way Germany has been advising us to scrutinise our loans from china. Afterall, this is over 50% in obe tranche

Few things I'd note are:

1. Stable electricity generation and distribution is no longer the exclusive preserve of a few nations. It's the norm out there. We could leverage the widely held knowledge by a lot ofvnations to build our capacity.

2. Secondly, its one thing to have a technology and another to want to truly help others with it. Britain was a forerunner in rail technology and has very well interconnected cities. Aside tracks built during the colonial era which were for the main purpose of transporting cheap raw materials to the coast for export to UK, how has Britain been of help in boosting rail infrastructure in former colonies?

3. Before we start singing the praise of the Europeans, lets get concrete details of the loan first. We know the Chinese loans were given at circa 3% and have been responsible for most of our federal infrastructure spend over the last decade. No need to hurry.We have over 400 years of interaction with the Europeans. Lets get facts first.

4. With all the excess money flushing around, asides a very few examples, I'm yet to see a concrete example of a nation developing another. We live in an increasingly capitalist society. Everyone is concerned about milking human and capital resources of another for cheap. We need to approach world powers knowing there's little benevolence out there.

Nobody is talking about 'German' loan trap now like they would if it was China. Is this not a direct copy of what the Chinese are doing in Africa? - Something western nations including Germany have criticised them for.
$2.3 loan from Germany to be given to a German company. This is over half of all we've borrowed from China since 2007 bring taken out at once


In addition, what are the nitty-gritties of this loan
What's the loan interest rate and how competitive is it?
How much would a similar project have have cost if the bidding process was open?
What are the restrictive covenants in place e.g if Nigeria can't pay back.

Badmashiii:
Bro no where in my comment where i said otherwise. Humans are all the same everywhere that is an undisputed fact.

I.e the traits you see that make you insult your women are also present worldwide.

There is no culture with good men and bad women or vice versa

Badmashiii:
From your comment,i know you belong to the vagina crew.

The best thing for men is don't marry at all or bring over a naija girl overseas.

Dude... humans all over the world are the same.

FYI, the divorce rate in Western nations is between 40- 50%. The chances of divorce are likely higher with a white person who sees divorce as normal. Understand the culture over there. Even if you become homosexual, the divorce rates are still high.

ReesheesuKnack:
From my experience, your HR is being unreasonable (if indeed they are asking for a Right to Work Share code at this stage).

....

I doubt there's a negative intent here rather just a HR naive on visa issues as you'd find many employers. Asides experienced HR staff in large NHS Trusts (who do lots of international employment), I have found many other HR staff (and public in general) largely ignorant on visa issues. The HR is likely following a tickbox. I have had to guide HR staff thru some of the visa rules in the past.

IMO, a quick email stating he needs a BRP to generate a share code and can only be issued a BRP after arrival should suffice.

Lexusgs430:
Send your insurance company a letter detailing everything + highlighting your change of address etc etc

Also request a deadlock letter on their position and inform them you would be escalating this incident to the financial ombudsman.......

Sit down and wait ........😀

Thanks... not that the insurance was cheap. Thinking in line of a formal complaint before further escalation if need be. Sent them a straight-worded message yesterday. They agreed I could change the v5c address myself and send the updated one to them (sounds awkward) and they have taken a note for the relevant team to look into it. Annoyingly, its online only hence you can’t speak to anyone except when making a new claim.

Lordbinsmar:
Life is not cheap in Nigeria ooo, to be realistic.

Some times I just sit down and look back at life.

When I was in Nigeria, I was spending more than 40 percent of my earnings on food. Not to talk of rent, electricity and other things.

In Europe I am able to save more than 60 percent of my earnings every month.

It's easier to save money in Europe than Nigeria if you are very disciplined.

I don't understand where people get the notion that life is cheaper in Nigeria than western world, Europe to be precise.

During pdp's regime maybe that was possible, but for this apc demonic government naaa lie ooo

Its ignorance of mainly using price of items in the UK/EU and converting it to naira to define whats 'cheaper'.

Someone once started the argument regarding food using the price of Coke and I had to demonstrate to him that food is at least 10x cheaper in the UK than Nigeria.

When compared to Nigeria, the only essentials more expensive in the West are labour (for good reason as it benefits all) and accomodation. Others like food, holidays/entertainment, education (ouside the U.S), security, cars, electronics, health are way 'cheaper' (i.e. affordable over there)

Next is to tell you how they 'enjoy' the rampant poverty in Nigeria. By enjoyment, they mean being able to hire domestic staff for peanuts, break the law at will, sleep with hapless hungry girls for indomie, slave other peoples children in the name of houseboy e.t.c

@house... seeking advice here.

Wondering if anyone has been involved in something similar and how they sorted it.

Got a pending insurance claim with Marshmallow (2nd post abt them today). They asked for v5c and other docs which I supplied.
Recently moved and changed my addresses including my driving licence and that on my policy (paid the admin fee), however totally forgot the v5c.

They came back and said the underwriters said I have to pay an extra prenium of £286 due to 'an issue' with my address. After enquiry, it's the v5c which bears my old address. I find this rather annoying as that had no bearing on my insurance prenium or cost in the first place and it was correct at the point of taking on the insurance. I am not in the mood to pay that extra and seeking means of resolution.

I also set up a royal mail redirection service just incase I missed any address change and I've been there a number of times to check so should have any mail sat there.

Nemie:
Thanks for your contribution. I really didn't know it was possible to get a discount on a new build. I'd always thought the best case scenario was a discount or some incentives as I understand that accepting a lower value may influence the valuation of other properties in the development. Would be useful to hear from others as well, so future buyers go into the market better armed and batter equipped with useful insight

It depends on a number of factors. As deept said, a developer wouldn't want word spreading around that they reduce prices left and right. When you visit a site, see the plan, built and unsold houses, you get a feel of how their market is moving. Take note of the finished but unsold properties. They've marketed this ones for months at least with no success. They get very uneasy with those and with the right market situation, you'd push something off. Some might give 'discounts' but take out a few essentials so be cautious. Some might give cashback which can mainly be used for home improvements at exorbitant rates. Ultimately, after searching for a while, you'd knkw what the fair price is in your area. If you see one that suits and have the means, just crack on.

One thing I forgot to add is the sector of the market you're buying. With higher interest rates, I've noticed it's easier to get more discounts for higher priced houses. The cutoff differs from place to place. In mine, it is abt 300k. Last yr, even with new builds- fairly priced houses below this level were still selling. Above that level, the mortgage repayment gets steep , you have less 'first time' buyers hence more experience and tact. On my site even with the slow down last year, the few houses below 300 were snapped off (many off plan). Those between 300-450 took a while but now mainly sold. A good number above 700 have been sitying empty for over 6m. The devs would definitely be discounting those for the right client.

Recipe for chronic back pain