Obailala's Posts
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Say Amen, say Amen ![]() Una wicked oh, una want the guy to use im own mouth curse im destiny? ![]() |
For the love of money... |
xreal:Lol... please dont compare Nigeria with Venezuela for any reason; Venezuela increased pump price by 6000%..... |
I pray for successful startup and most especially, the completion of this project. It can single handedly solve Nigeria's short term power woes. |
divinehand2003:Adesina? Issorait! |
damton:Would be interesting to know that too. Just pulled this off http://www.tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/imports Import bill trend between 1999 to date https://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/nigeria-imports.png?s=nigeriaim&v=201609061157n&d1=19990506&d2=20160906&type=column 1999-2007 https://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/nigeria-imports.png?s=nigeriaim&v=201609061157n&d1=19990506&d2=20070506&type=column 2007 to date https://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/nigeria-imports.png?s=nigeriaim&v=201609061157n&d1=20070506&d2=20160906&type=column I'm not sure what's covered in the figures represented in the charts, but a closer look shows the average import bill has multiplied by up to a factor of 10 since the early OBJ days till now. |
What's even the government's obsession with demolishing even now in the peak of a recession? ![]() |
Shuoo!.. Ogboru don join APC? www.nairaland.com/attachments/4202160_3_jpeg182845aceb39c9e413e28fd549058cf8 Abi my eye dey see double? |
kingreign:I wouldn't agree with you there at all, irrespective of the price of crude, a refinery would still make its profits. Furthermore, because I doubt the capacity of a state government (or FG) to manage anything, I suggest if such things as refineries, high speed rails or light rails, power plants or airlines are established, the only survival mechanism is for it to be operated by private ventures and the government should just be shareholders with minimal management influence. |
Forward thinking leadership.... If only governors of richer states can be this visionary. States like Akwa-ibom, Rivers, Delta and Bayelsa should have since constructed their own state owned refineries and petrochemical plants which should be managed as profit driven private ventures. There's also been a loud cry about northerners owning oil wells, very soon there would be a new round of oil block allocation and I'm very sure because of the uproar lately, the next bidding process would be relatively transparent. I still wonder why Niger-Delta state governments can't float state owned oil companies which can also bid for oil blocks since the states have the capacity to raise the required capital. |
Nigeria and poor maintenance culture are like this... **insert Jacob Zuma hand pix here** How can anyone blame the cows for grazing in the stadium when the stadium itself looks like a forest reserve? ![]() [img]https://www.nairaland.com/attachments/816519_The_Stadium_main-bowl_before_2_jpgdba1b740598779d97686ed4690288a39[/img] [img]https://www.nairaland.com/attachments/816520_The_Stadium_main-_bowl_at_presentjpg_2_jpgd229fe09779175abb88467054e33a97c[/img] [img]https://www.nairaland.com/attachments/816521_The_Stadium_main-_bowl_at_presentjpg_1_jpgcac636e4b59efedc88e4f3387f15b1f4[/img] www.nairaland.com/attachments/816522_National_Stadium_Abuja_environment_at_present_3_jpg3c9f8a8771c00a45c6070a000303f8fd www.nairaland.com/attachments/816526_National_Stadium_Abuja_environment_at_present_4_jpgf24cc34a659845dfecc569153f4b0250 If the stadium was already looking like the above pictures in 2012, only God knows what it looks like now. |
kahal29:I need to save this piece for reference. So many have been asking some very ignorant questions lately; e.g. why an oil price of $45 is considered too small even though OBJ had as low as $9 at some point in 1999. Several have also asked why a foreign reserve of about $28.5 billion is considered too small even when OBJ inherited about $5.4 billion in 1999 but didn't complain. |
www.nairaland.com/attachments/4201748_img20160906084312_jpeg95d996df88c8d8e3440a5108deb2a2dd Fayose sef!... He just had to stop the convoy for this, man na man ![]() |
I watched the debate, all 4 candidates were mediocre. Ize-iyamu (PDP) couldn't make a single sentence without saying APC/oshiomole, he seemed to have come out there just to wail and pass blames. Obaseki (APC) couldn't make a single sentence without referring to how APC/Oshiomole had transformed Edo state to eldorado ![]() Osaro (APGA) couldn't make a single sentence without appending himself to the success of Obiano of Anambra, claiming he wanted to bring Anambra success to Edo. Areloegbe (LP): Lol ![]() |
TijaniAbu:Saudi Arabia With a population of roughly 30 milllion had a foreign reserve of about $750 billion at the start (Aug 2015) of the oil price drop. Today they have about $550 billion, i.e. they have spent roughly $200 billion to stabilise their economy in these 2 years of low oil prices. Nigeria With a population of over 170 million (roughly 6 times the population of Saudi) had a foreign reserve of about $38-$40 billion when the oil crash started. As at May 2015 when buhari took over, our reserves had been reduced to $28.5 billion, for over 170 million people. Forex restrictions were therefore enforced as a matter of emergercy to prevent the reserves from falling to zero (Venezuela). Of course enforcing that inevitable forex restriction is what further drove Nigeria into the present recession because businessmen and manufactures couldnt get the forex they needed and 'fair weather' opportunistic foreign investors started moving away to the next location to milk. Now since you wanted to compare Saudi vs Nigeria, I implore you to compare the figures above and honestly tell us, between you and buhari, who is really the outdated idiot and who will not end well for insulting his elders? |
Standing5:This analysis makes a lot of sense... I love threads like this that educate on the way forward, not the ones looking for who to blame. |
chigoizie7:Me I be novice too but will only give the little explanation I understand. The Op simply tried to downplay the contribution of the drop in oil price to the current recession. He tried to insinuate that the main reason behind the recession is bad policies by govt which forced foreign investors to pull away. That is a very flawed and absurd conclusion because whatever capital those foreign investors pulled away from Nigeria makes up less than 5% of the total income Nigeria is losing currently due to the oil crash. But, I still want to understand one thing here. Why did our external reserve got reduced by $10 billion in that 6months, between, 2014 and 2015?Nigeria is an import dependent nation which imports almost all our basic needs from fuel to food to clothing to even raw materials like polythene used in everyday packaging. FOr every single item we import, it requires forex spent from the forex reserves. The forex reserves balance is maintained by the money we make from exportation. Nigeria exports primarily crude oil to earn this forex but now the value of crude has dropped drastically (over 60%). The implication of this is that the money we spend for importation is far more than what we presently make from export, i.e. we have a negative balance of trade (more forex going out than is coming in). That was the reason behind the rapid drop in the external reserve in those months. Why is it that there is so much demand on fx now, even when over 40 commodities has be delisted from getting fx on importation, ( I mean, as a layman, their quota shouldn't be in consideration now).Now with the dangerously rapid reduction in the external reserves, the govt had to implement restrictions in forex supply to several items we normally import (41 items). CBN also stopped granting forex requests easily and this on one hand helped to greatly reduce the rate of depletion of the external reserves (reduced the rate, didn't totally stop the reduction cos we still have a negative balance of trade), but it also killed several businesses that depend on forex and also strangled foreign businesses who couldn't evacuate their profits back to their home countries (this forced several foreign businesses to close and exit). Once again I ask, would you have preferred the CBN to grant forex to everyone and risk running our external reserves to zero?... Does our total budget, revenue and it's projections contribute or determine how much fx that is needed by the economy, both private sectors?( assume that our 2016 budget is pegged @ 6trillion naira, and projections based on sale of crude for 2016 is about that 6trillion naira, having in mind that oil accounts for over 90% of the total budget if not less. Does it mean that we can only have access to fx equivalent of 6trillion, I mean in all sectors, both importers?) having in mind the revenues from non oil sectors dropped by N134 billion in just 3months, what could be d cause? Is it associated with oil sales?I doubt if I understand your question here. Budget and reserves are 2 different things completely. The fx reserves is a stockpile of forex the CBN uses to facilitate foreign transactions for Nigerians. Every time you purchase something from beyond the shores of Nigeria, you may use your naira denominated debit card for the purchase but the CBn receives your Naira, and pays the international seller the dollar equivalent; now the dollar equivalent being paid by CBN is drawn from the CBN foreign reserves. That's why it is very important that the foreign reserves dont drop to zero, cos if that happens, we cant even import simple necessities like petrol or rice to feed; if the reserves are zero, it means the Naira is worthless and even if you bring a million naira, it wouldn't be able to get you even a plate of rice. Meanwhile regarding the drop in non-oil revenue, that is just a collateral effect of the forex scarcity issue; if manufacturers cant get foerex to import raw materials, it means they will produce less, and if they produce less, it means less profit and less profit means they pay less tax and less tax paid means less revenue (non-oil) for govt. |
BraniacX:Okay I am sorry, W.H.O are omni-potent and omni-science and omni-present gods whose methods of verification are infallible.... In fact it was actually Buhari that went to a lab somewhere, manufactured polio virus and then proceeded to infect some kids in the war torn north east where everyone had previously been declared polio free. Buhari why?! ![]() |
anonimi:lol.. guy shift go one side |
anonimi:This man, so you never tire to upload these your pictures?... Very soon you will start uploading satellite images ![]() Regarding the matter at hand, I'm sure you should know that routine vehicle service (engine oil change etc) is different from an ad-hoc service which might involve changing gearbox or bringing down the full engine. #CommonSense101 |
Izonpikin:Vandalism is one of the biggest hinderance to the efficient utilisation of gas in Nigeria. Yes there are other problems which rest mainly on the government paying only lip service to development of gas infrastructure, but you cannot play down the impact of vandalism. As an example, more than 50% of the gas power turbines in the country are lying idle presently, thanks to gas constraints. |
BraniacX:So if polio was completely eradicated, where did it appear from again?.... Obviously you cannot discern that the war-torn areas in the NE were not completely covered in the eradication process, hence the discovery of polio now in those areas. #CommonSense101 |
PaulIdu:An airline has 2 planes and both were diagnosed with mechanical problems and were undergoing repairs, so what plane did you expect the airline to be operating? |
sleekymag:Yeah it doesn't matter what it's called, oil revenue or tax receipts, the fact is that we still depend directly and indirectly on cash from oil for up to 90% of the nation's revenue; oil literally drives the engine of Nigeria and that's why the economy could crash so quickly upon the drop in oil revenues. |
ideology:I live in the oil industry, and I am aware of the constraints to gas utilization in Nigeria. Maybe you should try reading up articles on the constraints to gas utilisation in Nigeria. A simple example is our thermal power plants across the nation which are always down due to gas supply issues; it's not that we don't have abundant gas or that we don't know how useful gas can be, but rather, we have a more demonic problem called 'pipeline vandalism' which has hindered gas utilisation in Nigeria for decades. |
sleekymag:Yes of course it is getting worse because the ailment that caused it (oil price drop) is still much around and is even worse. The government is struggling to reduce the rate of this depletion even as they look for ways to stop it. From Nov 2014 to May 2015 (6 months), $10bn was lost even though oil still sold above $65/barrel; that's an erosion rate of $1.67bn/month. Between May 2015 till date, reserves have dropped from $28.5bn to just over $25bn ($3.5bn lost in 15 months); that's an erosion rate of about $0.23bn/month even though we all know oil price dropped to less than $30/barrel and oil production dropped by up to 50%. Truth is that the govt is struggling to maintain the reserves to ensure we don't degenerate to Venezuela and with the figure i raised above, I'm sure this effort is clear enough. Now these efforts made to reduce the rate of depletion is responsible for all the economic problems we've been having since this administration: - crash in value of naira (due to short supply of forex), closure of industries (due to lack/restrictions of forex), exit of foreign investors (because of the same forex restrictions) etc. Regarding obasanjo meeting less oil price, Nigeria of 1999 was totally different from Nigeria of today; a man earning N10k may have been comfortable in 1999 but that's not enough for monthly phone bill today. Population has increased, minimum wage has more than tripled, Nigeria's demand for fuel has multiplied astronomically (I'm sure you know a bigger economy uses more energy), Nigeria wasn't spending up to a tenth of what it spends today in importing petroleum products, the demand for forex wasn't up to a tenth of what it is today when everybody now has an international mastercard/visacard and can easily buy things from around the globe (far more forex demand), I can go on and on but the bottom line is that Nigeria of 1999 is far different from Nigeria of today. |
MrPristine:"In the end, foreign investors took over $80B out of the economy within a short period and everything went down to free fall" Are you sure you know what $80 billion is? Do you know that oil export accounts for up to 90% of Nigeria's monthly forex inflow?.... Are you aware the amount of forex inflow has reduced by up to 60% courtesy of oil price plunge and reduced oil output (thanks to NDA and co)?... Now if you studied elementary economics you should know the demand and supply laws and you should know what happens when supply of forex drops dangerously but the demand almost remains constant? Are you aware that within 6 months between November 2014 and May 2015, Nigeria's forex reserves dropped by a whooping $10billion from $38.5 to $28.5bn?... This was when we still had the so called world class economic team and economic managers and this was even when the oil crash was still at the early stages and still selling above $65/barrel (as at May 2015). Due to the negative balance of trade (less forex inflow than outflow), reserves dropped by $10billion in 6 months and this didn't still prevent the Naira from crashing from N160 to N220. The first thing the new administration did was to impose restrictions on the release of forex by the CBN to prevent it dropping to zero (Venezuela). Of course the restrictions (which was indeed a life saving inevitable venture) eventually caused dollar price to increase rapidly (demand and supply theory) and the restrictions also forced several foreign investors to unfortunately leave. But would you have rather had the vault of the CBN forex reserves opened to those investors and watched Nigeria instantly drop down to a Venezuelan situation?.... And finally, whatever capital flight that may have occurred due to foreigners leaving is just a scratch on the surface compared to the damage done by the crash in oil prices and the NDA driven reduction in production. Don't let politicians or sentimentally angry people distort the simple narrative, a spade must be called a spade. If oil price doesn't come back up miraculously, diversification is the only way out of the current situation and it takes time 9years) and money to diversify an economy. |
ideology:This same gas that they keep bombing the pipelines everyday? |
sleekymag:Civil servants who still have a job, why do they also complain of hardship even though they still get paid their 18k salary every month? The above question I asked is exactly how your above statement of '$32bn in foreign reserves' sounds. $32bn reserves for 170 million people in an import dependent country at a perilous time when the primary source of forex income had crashed by 60%, probably it should have fallen to zero and we get the Venezuelan situation before you agree that there was something wrong with the amount? |
sleekymag:N820bn is from oil receipts in form of royalties, so where do you think the rest of the government's revenue comes from?... Cocoa?.. Groundnuts?... Besides the deficit amounts which are to be borrowed, the remaining government revenue is primarily from company tax. Guess the companies/industry whose tax still makes up more than 60% of this 'company tax' component?... I'm sure you should know the answer... In summary, Nigeria is a rundown country which gets up to 90% of its revenue from oil (directly and indirectly). |
Na wa oh... thought this thing was supposed to have been eradicated. |
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