₦airaland Forum

invisible!:
Wait a minute pumping, are you infering the brokers will come to the market to raise funds? Just let cashcraft not come near the marketooo, or their offer will be grossly undersubscribed, not after all the 'bad mouthing' the have recieved here?

I hope so. That way the price can drop after listing and I can stock up

Some have already done PPs and they plan to list.

dollyp1cute:
I know that (I said most of) but a lot of folks care about T.S especially the silent market makers and not so silent ones on this thread. In the interim while insurance sector is getting it's permanent resistance and all the T.S shebang has died, most folks will move their money elsewhere.

I suspect banking is one sure sector, so the N50 bar may soon tip over my own theory o.

Anway heard the stockbrokers are coming to the market.
I think it is on T.S

It never even occured to me but now that you mentioned it. If these stockbroking guys will make entrants as "penny" stocks (and remain that way for a while unlike Big Treat and the likes) this could be another money spinning sector.

That N50 bar will surely be shattered this year but I'm just wondering how long we have to wait

AllenG:
@ Pumping, Aktopgun, Invisible and all the gurus

Can someone explain to me why Standard Alliance is not moving like the other guys in the sector.

I checked the fundamentals are they look okay when compared to the others.

Any news wey I no know? Please, help ooooo before I jump enter.

Because it is on Technical Suspenion (TS) due to it's planned Public Offer. During this time, the price is frozen.

blueband:
The time to make 15% profit a year never near o!Maybe in 2010!

Agreed. Just like the time we will start trading without stock brokers never near too The two will tend to land at the same time

blueband:
How una dey get bid price?

I wish we could buy/sell our shares by ourselves through some portal on our brokers website,like it is done here.Oneday we will get there,I suspect very very soon.

By that time, na only 15% gain we go dey make in a year instead of in a week Leave this system jare  _{just kidding.}

invisible!:
But going back to insurance and the fear of TS, I woulnt mind getting trapped in a TS if it will be like the one of Aiico insurance.

Ha, but no TS for Aiico again. Aiico upward journey was guaranteed. It was under-valued at least relative to the other insurance stocks. With all these insurance stocks that are over-valued, I won't want to be trapped by their TS.

You can't predict what will happen to most of the others after TS is lifted especially if it is lifted in the bear season which is most likely. Moreover, that trapped money could have been working better elsewhere. Also look at the insurance stocks that are already on TS (STDINSURE, CUSTODYINS). Surely you can still get them to buy on the floor now.

My prediction is that most of the insurance stocks will still be available on the floor even during TS.

dollyp1cute:
May  

So if the fear of T.S chases all the money / most of the from insurance sector abeg which sector do you think the money will land  

And remember share prices follow the money / market sentiment.

As for union I should have picked up more when DATAMAN don put mouth verify common man's observation, make greed no catch me ho

TS will not chase everybody away from the insurance sector. Only those that care so much about TS. Anyway, the Insurance stock prices will soon offer permanent resistance as they continue to rise and folks compare it to their performance when they release interim results.

The Admira:
Yes, it is possible but I won't say if it is normal. It depends on a number of factors. These include,

1. Is the stock readily available on the floor? If you gave your broker an order to buy AIICO last week and still no luck today, it is not abnormal. The stock has been scarce.

2. Did you give a price cap which is well below the high prices for the period? You may need to raise your bid for success especially if it is a low cap stock with net bid on the floor.

3. Is the turnover volume of the stock unusually low?

etc, etc

So if you want to get better input, you should say which stock(s) you requested for and at what price(s).


i gave instruction for NEM, AIICO and PREMPAINTS(limit price of 5); i did not set any limit price for the NEM and Aiico.l volume traded on NEM and Aiico  have been high but prempaints has bn low(just checked).
thx.

I don't think you can blame your broker. In your post  you said your broker re-assured you and this is something very important in the relationship between my broker and myself.

1. NEM -  First, let me advice you to cancel your NEM order if it is for short term since you did not place a cap. I believe it started bleeding yesterday. You asked for this stock to be bought when it was marking up almost 5% daily so it could have been difficult to get.

2. Aiico - This one has been no go area. It has been very scarce. Be careful with this stock. Not putting a cap on this order can injure your money. The stock will rise unreasonable and the price will dip suddenly. You don't want your order to be executed at the wrong price. I must buy more of this stock sha as it is TS proof and share dilution proof for another few months but not at ANY price.

3.Prempaints - you have answered this one yourself. The stock volume has been pathetic. On Wednesday, it sold only 600 units.  

So no report your broker to anybody o. Report am to himself or herself.  Your broker is your best friend. If you go report am, the man/woman go become official and na you go cry last.

invisible!:
Hey! I don waka enter trouble, see as the Afribank I bought at 27 plus few weeks ago has been losing steady, and to drop below PO level is simply bad.

And nobody knows what will happen, I would have averaged this one out, but the fear of futher falls since this has never happened to another stock. (Losing below PO price)

Are we sure something serious has not happened? Another Wema here?

Nothing has happened. There is no interest in the stock. The problem is that the bank does not have an interim result that can be used to stimulate interest and stabilize or push up the price. Q-3 result has already been announced _{too early} to encourage folks to participate in a PO that was clearly overpriced.

Full year is March 2008 so no result can be out till August/September. Na only extraordinary bull market fit help this stock in my opinion.

The nominal price is average and the fundamentals are not spectacular. Na wa o  

blueband:
Folks,
The TRW prices are wrong at least Unhomes and Linkage Assurance.
Unhomes closed at 9.48,making a gain of 26kobo   while TRW is showing it as a loss
Linkage made more gain than TRW is reporting.E b like them rush post results before market close

Una see how the UnionHomes CICO pass in flying colours? If una collect your copy at a store near you as adviced 2 weeks ago, you go don dey bam bam to jollof this weekend.

Remember the winning formular.

Good Results_{(not necessarily spectacular)} + low nominal price = Quick profit.  - CICO 101.

wanaj0:
The insurance stocks saw RED today as expected!!!!

He be like some people go need medicine for High RED blood pressure  

Me I no dey there. The fear of TS is the beginning of wisdom. I remember how Zeniths TS crept up and hit many folks unawares. When they don't want you to know, you won't know.

The Admira:
Dear gurus in the house,

is it a normal thing for you to submit a buy order and after a week the order has not been executed?

i'm upset with the way my broker is nonchalant about the issue. can some one advise? should i accept his assurances that all is well? and as you know the website has been unusable for over a week now.

thanks.

Yes, it is possible but I won't say if it is normal. It depends on a number of factors. These include,

1. Is the stock readily available on the floor? If you gave your broker an order to buy AIICO last week and still no luck today, it is not abnormal. The stock has been scarce.

2. Did you give a price cap which is well below the high prices for the period? You may need to raise your bid for success especially if it is a low cap stock with net bid on the floor.

3. Is the turnover volume of the stock unusually low?

etc, etc

So if you want to get better input, you should say which stock(s) you requested for and at what price(s).

Afribank has managed to go below it's PO offer price of N25. It closed at N24.90 today.

PO lesson to be learnt by _Afribank. Don't go to market after releasing your Q-3 result if your stock price was artifially bloated. You have nothing to keep the price from going under after TS is lifted. Maybe they don't even care sha.

See how Fidelity has provided itself shock absorber with interim results.

Afribank has earned the title of worst PO for the year last year. If I bin do the PO na cry I for dey cry now   Wait until you even see the oversubscription when the stock dey undersubscribed at a lower price on the floor  

I don't believe Oceanic is going anywhere yet. Na my own I dey talk o. Make we dey watch sha as I no be bigboylarry.

To carry 22B people for one plane no be joke. Until March/April when the half year result is being expected, I don't see this momentum being sustained. Before that time, I believe Oceanic will become available again below N28.

One interesting thing is this N50 bar that has been erected in the banking sector. This is a very strong bar that has not been broken or scaled.

As predicted, Zenith has been hit by the same bar. As we all know, UBA has long been struggling under this bar.

Now the elephant is a whisker away from the bar. Can the elephant destroy this bar once and for all?? He for good o.

We no need yeye bar for NSE. This no be Olympics na The bar dey bar progress to the banks  

[/quote][quote author=no_shaking link=topic=31554.msg1932561#msg1932561 date=1202471410]Fidelity Bank - Half Yr Result Out

FIDELITY BANK PLC
HALF YEAR ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2007

                                                   2007      2006
TURNOVER                              N16.025b  N10.363b
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION     N7.184b   N2.377b
TAXATION                             (N1.436b) (N475.146m)
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION       N5.747b   N1.901b

On target to reach FY PAT of N11b. Nice result _{pre allotment}! Post allotment, me i no know o

Ha. The eagle don land o. Good result+low nominal price compared to others in same sector = quick profit.

Actually I think this is a good result anyway you look at it. Even after factoring in 25% oversubscription from the PO, the forward PE is around 23x based on yesterday's closing price. Not spectacular, but quite good if you look at the forward PE's in the banking sector right now. Banks that have lower PEs have higher nominal prices. They have also grown PAT by around 200%.

The result is slightly better than expectations and has increased full year PAT projections by about N1B.
The best part is that this na "penny" stock as per bank standard so I expect reasonable rally.

Not to mention the fact that our stockbroking firms never factor in shares to be listed in future, so they will all be advertising a forward PE of 16x which will do magic for a "penny" stock.

I already got an email today that put "strong buy recommendation" on Fidelity bank. Obviously they had seen this result .

blueband:
Lasaco is bleeding! What could be responsible for this?

What goes up must come down

Seriously you can't determine a trend from one days trading except you can see some other supporting indicators like volumes for instance. Morever, you can't really tell how the stock will close.

Generally, the insurance stock prices are bloated so expect bleeding from time to time. Profit takers will be striking especially since there is the smell of TS in the air all around the insurance sector.

I hear from the grape vine that FBN is dancing around N49.77 right now. This elephant means business o. I hope people wey dey look for money to do weekend no go pull am down sha 

@windywendy - what is your experience with BGL so far?

aktopgun:
@gudchoice, what i mean is that buyers controlled the price from first trade to the last trade. You see, the kind of candlestick cutix showed yesterday is called a MARUBOZU (japanese name), no mind thename jare.

what it means is that the high for the day was the closing price and the low for the day was the opening price ie high price=closing price and low price=opening price for the day's trades. On nigerian securities.com, they use the color green to denote days that the opening price is lower than the closing price and red for the days the closing price is less than the opening price. if the colour of the candlestick hab been red and the opening price equals the highest price for the day while the closing price was the lowest for the day, then that would have meant the sellers were in control of the trades from the first trade to the last trade.

so in summary Marubozu can be of 2 types, called brothers.
brother 1 is green (using nigeriansecurities.com color code) which is good and means the buyers are in control
brother 2 is red which is not so good and means sellers are in control

hope this is helpful for the techies on here. am learning more everyday. mixing it up with all the other little gems of info i've learned on this extermely beneficial forum. probably the best investment decision i made in 2007 u know, to join this forum.

i holla

Good analysis and I love that Japanese name that I still can't pronounce 

I just wanted to comment that both "brothers" can be good or bad, depending on if you are a buyer or a seller. Of course I understand that with a green bar for instance, it should mean that the price will continue to rise. We should then expect to start seeing different opening and closing prices as the momentum slows until there is  a turn around.

However, we can use the halt in movement of Platinum, Zenith and even First Bank in recent weeks to infer that sometimes on the NSE, even though a stock opened and closed high today, it could still end up losing tomorrow. Strange but true.  I call it sudden "You"-Turn Marubozu style

yodiyokun:
Look this people ooo.

FCMB no do anybody favour ke that mean plenty people no subscribe for the offer - thats all.

If they received 400% subscription, they will have returned money like the others !!

So maybe it was just 140% subscribed and they could absorb 25% over subscrition so they returned 15% simple maths.

The only wa for you to get full allocation is for the offer not to be crazily oversubscribed.

Still - no P.O for me, even if them dash me.

No more PO for me because I have now got to my limit. I played safe with FCMB and bought only 20k units!!! If only I had known. Anyway, I hope Platinum's PO plays out the same way since I put a lot more into this. You know market woment don't know banks like FCMB and maybe Platinum.

Not market women PO like First Bank and Dangote Flour

clickdeoye:
Respect fatherof2 and pumping777. Where can i put N2m and reap bountifully.


Please help a brother in need.

Expecting a response please


God Bless

Clicky

Sorry, I've been far from the NSE this week due to work commitments. I don't have any leads. If I pick up any scent over the weekend when I'm free a bit, I will share.

yodiyokun:
How far with your project? have you launched now?

I know you must be very busy, but we miss you for here ke?

Meanwhile - so na both ofus dey look UN homes, well I hope to disembark sometime be4 10naira.

I miss una and the threads too jare but this work no gree me.

The project is not live yet but we are still on target for our go-live date provided we put in at least 18 hours a day and work all weekends  

Thanks for asking. I hope you're doing alright too.

stanchuks:
@pumping777
just want to know if getting Transexpress at 6.65 is ok and secondly what do u think should be the exit point for unionhomes
i got both stocks based on your strong recommendation and that of my broker

My exit point for Union Homes is N9.5 and the main reason is that I have somewhere else I need to enter.

My recommendation for Transexpress was for long term. All the same I will consider some profit around N7.90 if it hits it tomorrow or early next week.

For those that had any doubts about this.

----
From: www.cscsnigerialtd.com Dear Subscriber,

Please note that an Individual Investor is expected to have only a single Clearing House Number (CHN) across all Stockbroking firms. The Investor's acount number changes but the CHN remains the same.

Investors with different CHN should apply through their Stockbroking firm(s) for change of CHN.

Thank you.

Admin.
www.cscsnigerialtd.com
- www.cscsnigerialtd.com Staff
---------

upward:
Looks like our mighty Zenith is having a stop=over sooner than expected. It's loosing 1.00 naira today on the floor. Also seems like the light has fully shun on the Petroleum sector, most of them are jsut comfortably sittinginthe gainers chart with high figures. NSE, very interesting-o

Ha. If you have been following the Zenith discussion you will note that some already predicted that it will lose steam today. It may still come out strong at end of trading but the turbulence must hit today as profit takers go for 5% on large volumes. That N50 mark is a heavy resistance line for now.

upward:
@pumping,
Please do you have the answer to my previous question. Seems like everybody has abandoned me on that one: when will the CSCS accounts of AIICO and Fidelity PO buyers be credited

No clue. They never meet up with the dates in the prospectus. However, I don't expect any of these to be credited (if this is the case) soon. Not within the next 3 months for Fidelity and even 6 months for Aiico. Aiico just finished bare a month ago na.

FatherOF2:
@ Captain
 Men e be like na this week we go kill goat for our plane oh. That N32 card must come do or die. 25% must complete for this flight otherwise na hand i go take
 push plane go air like superman take push that space shuttle go space.

After all these people wey carry heavy load comot for the last air stop, the plane don light now and e come dey pick up better altitude.

I go soon swith the propeller engine to the turbo jet tripple stage engine make we rise enough to fit see clearly wetin them write for the underbelly of the GTB plane

upward:
No not you, I was actually talking to pumping, check again.

I deleted it to confirm I was still awake. After pinching myself twice and wincing successfully, I put it back there.

RoughCut:
Trust me i'm not mixing it all up! When the RSI is ABOVE 70 it is OVERSOLD and a retractment downward is imminent that will be the time to BUY and when the RSI is below 30 it OVERBOUGHT and an upward swing is imminent and that will be the time to SELL

Read the statement in its enitirety and then you get the PICTURE and also refer to the comment i made about the 10 and 50-Day EMA then you will see they corroborate each other which is the reason you normally use or look at  more than one TECHNICAL INDICATOR

Let me know if the concept is still confusing

Na. This is not correct Roughcut. Abi I still dey sleep?

Above 70 or 80 = Overbought - Get ready to sell when it moves downwards out of  this region
Below 30 or 20 = Oversold      - Get ready to buy when it moves upwards out of this region

If you are using 80 and 20 then 70 and 30 will not give you any signal.
------
Overbought/Oversold
Wilder recommended using 70 and 30 and overbought and oversold levels respectively. Generally, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish for the underlying stock. Conversely, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Some traders identify the long-term trend and then use extreme readings for entry points. If the long-term trend is bullish, then oversold readings could mark potential entry points.
---------

Abi I dey see double?

upward:
Still not sure about the above, I think you are mixing it all up Roughcut. when a downward movement of price is IMMINENT, will that now be a time to BUY or SELL, and when an UPWARD price movement is IMMINENT, will that now be a time to SELL? I think it's still the opposite, or am I missing something

Correct that this is a mix up. Above 70 is Overbought and below 30 is Oversold.

RoughCut:
The number you need to be looking for is 70 the moment the RSI is above 70 it is overbought and retractment downward is imminent so that will be the time to buy and if RSI is below 30 it is oversold and an upward price swing is imminent so that will be the time to SELL.

At present the RSI is somewhere between the 65-70 mark so give it a few more days and see if it breaches the 70-mark that wiil be the time to strike. The last time the RSI breached the 70-mark was between the 3-11 Dec'07 which would have been the time to buy if you had been watching!

The last time the RSI dipped below 30 was around 25-26 Dec '07 _{surprise surprise} which would have been the time to SELL

So if you are buying i think it will soon approach striking distance give it a few more days

I don't doubt this method of course and I suppose you have a reason for striking this early but I thought I'd comment on something.

The buy or sell signal respectively are actually generated when the the line moves up out of the oversold region or moves down out of the overbought region.

Well, I suspect you know this yourself already but just want to play it safe.

The reason being that an oversold stock can remain there for a long time since it does not mean the price has bottomed out. The reverse can also be true.

A good example is Unity Bank. It has been oversold for a while but there is no visible turn around yet.

So if the RSI breaches 70, it could still go on to 90. The expected time to strike is when it breaches the 70 mark again on it's way down out of the overbought region.

@upward - This has nothing to do with your question in which case Roughcut is perfectly correct.

blueband:
Person no dey ask question for this nairaland again o.
I asked if Union Homes was a good buy last week.Nobody answer me.Today the thing don climb 8.38kobo and it is on bid.My broker still dey try to get me some.

E b like people like Ibori,Atiku and Obasanjo dey read this thread.Too many deep pockets.

Some discussion around page 374.