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Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 12:49am On Feb 05, 2008

lawalidowu:
@ pumping, wendy, easimoni and wanajo

Eyin AGBA!
i don't want to be caught sleeping when d insurance cruise comot dock.
i want 5 of them that say in 12 months, i will still have my neck above water.

i am not really worried about TS since it wont go past 3 months.
please advise on which ones to go for.

1. AIICO - Once it loses steam.
2. Lawunion
3. Unic
4. Lasaco
5. Staco

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:36pm On Feb 04, 2008

Omoba3:
Pumping: Can you repost your outstanding shares file, please?

Easi: Do you have a list of outstanding shares on file? If yes, please share. I have strong faith in wema that we will laugh all the way to the bank, only if one can exercise patience. If I can raise the necessary funds, I can buy off you, sha.

Specifically I'm looking for NSL outstanding shares.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=LMKGYEKA

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 6:56pm On Feb 04, 2008

Gudchoice:
@ All - Anybodi sabi Redstar express? Does anyone have any current figures? Pumping I C You oh. do you have any thoughts on Redstar? Would appreciate any input, thanks.

@ Pumping - When do you think the elephant will fly, with regards to your earlier post? I recall WanaJo saying this would be a lon haul flight, do you share his optimism?

I have a forward PE of 16.7 for Redstar express. I believe there are good prospects medium to long term prospect for this stock. Being low cap with good fundamentals is one good point.

When Wanaj0 was calling First Bank long haul I really did not understand. Now I think I do. I don't expect a major rally till March next year sad

Of course I' not talking of 20% movement. This is still possible this year but at most I won't expct more than 40% at any point this year compared to today's price. I hope I'm wrong sha grin

I expect the real action to begin in March next year when the full year result will be out. I think it will be worth waiting for. Abi First Bank full year will be December na?

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 6:45pm On Feb 04, 2008

SavvyLanre:
na show off be that one, Anyway, linear is conservative enough for me,

I hope you are joking sha.

In case you did not notice, shigidi asked on this thread a while ago about the best way to do your PAT projection. He uses annual growth rate. I did not think he was showing off sha.

You should also have notice many times when easimoni or wanaj0 have weighed the interim results to come up with the projected PAT. An example is Guarnaty. If you use your linear formular, what do you get? There are many ways of doing the same thing I beg.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 6:41pm On Feb 04, 2008

Omoba3:
Anyone looking at Unity bank? They look like a good candidate for buying right now, but what do our gurus think?

Yes. It is very tempting. An interim result will make any participant a super star. I don enter already. This one na pure speculation sha

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 6:34pm On Feb 04, 2008

SavvyLanre:
BTW - with regards to FBN projection - (25,922 * 4/3 for full year)

This is just one way of projecting PAT and it is linear and not necessarily accurate. What if I use the growth rate from last year or weighted average per quarter or the projection from the prospectus? grin

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 5:57pm On Feb 04, 2008

Omoba3:
Pumping777: What's your take on Ikeja Hotels? I know you recently divested, but other than CICO, where do you see it heading in the medium term?

I divested in part and I'm holding on to the rest of my cargo. I still believe in the stock. Low cap with good fundamentals but I think it is more medium term. The full year results may not come out early. Last year's result did not come out till September.

If prices permit, I may even re-enter.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 5:21pm On Feb 04, 2008

lawalidowu:
@PUMPING

If i have made 30% on UNIC, is it wise to sell now? i no wan may my money disappear for my eye and at the same time, i don't want to miss an oppurtunity.

advice needed.

If TS is not in your radar (me I no know o), UNIC is still safe to hold. Those insurance stocks are not dropping in price anytime soon. If dem fall, dem go rise again quick quick.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 5:19pm On Feb 04, 2008

Pennywise:
@pumping
Sometimes we have to digress to egress. Indeed Einstein was born a German. He later changed his citizenship as this reference will show. http://pokspace.goverband.at/essays/wiltschek1_e.htm. The truth is that at the turn of the 19th century the difference between Austria and Germany was like as my people will say "oyinbo and father".

Thanks for the reference. Point taken.

The interesting thing is Einstein took up Austrian, Swiss and even US citizenship at some point so I don't see why he should be considered Austrian when this is just another acquired citizenship as the rest. grin

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 5:11pm On Feb 04, 2008

SavvyLanre:
Aba Oga Pumping - if you are comparing to all its peers, you well know that the only thing keeping UBA and Oceanic at current level is due to EOY in sept. Moreover, from where i seat - na only First Bank and Zenith dey same level.
And, i don't know where you got the current/Forward PE of First Bank but it is 33.3/24.6 based on latest Q3 reports.
And, if we are looking at the banks in the N40 range - what would you say about Intercon at 32.5/31.7 based on Q3 results

BTW - I am learning from you o,

Forward PEs are projected so we can't always have the same number. The disparity betwen 24 and 22 is not significant. It depends on how we project our full year PAT.

Well I bow for you if you say only Zenith and First Bank are on the same level but you were comparing Guaranty with Zenith? grin

Anyway, I don't know how you have done your own classification. Maybe Zenith and First Bank are Zero tier banks.

As far as I am concerned, UBA, UBN, FBN, Oceanic and Zenith remain close competitors in every way. Capitalization, Balance Sheet, PAT, Shareholders funds, Turnover, Depositors funds etc. We know our big banks. This is not a matter of corporate governance now. What makes Zenith bigger than Oceanic or UBA?

First Banks stands head and above in shareholders funds but for now, this has not translated to better returns. Maybe in the near future.

Intercontinental? So you want to compare this with UBA for now? Capitalization of N760B but only N24B projected as PAT? What kind of return is that? UBA with capitalization of N570B is likely to deliver a PAT close to N40B.

To me Intercontinental is not yet in this category and even if it is, there can always be exceptions.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 4:42pm On Feb 04, 2008

Pennywise:
That statement if you read it carefully you will find was not at all critical of your post(s) which gained my full attention a while back. It was meant for dunlop actually. The curve as seen on the NS map suggest a downward trajectory from (december) which appeared to be at variance with the direction of arrow seen and that is all. No bearing, no connection with any form of technical analyses which I might add I have very little patience for.

I share your admiration for the late Austrian. If he had not espoused the relativity theory he would have been just as influential for is incisive social comments. It is doubtful though if he would have gained any attention on this thread if he was alive and an anonymous contributor considering the caliber of people we have here.

I don't understand the statement above about Albert Einstein. He happens to be a genius of our time.

Einstein won a Nobel price for his discovery of the law of photoelectric effect though I will agree that he is most famous (or infamous) for his theory of relativity.

Be aware that he is named as the person of the century by Time magazine.

If I recall correctly, Einstein was a German Jew. He renounced German nationaity and became stateless until he was granted Swiss Citizenship. Not so? undecided

If you have the time, read about his works as documented by the American Institute of Physics.

http://www.aip.org/history/einstein/great1.htm

If you've been reading that rumour being circulated that Einstein was a slowpoke, I can understand your position. Rumours cannot change facts.

Yes, if Albert Einstein was alive now he probably won't be a stock guru. grin

Yes, the calibre of people here can turn N10 into N1,000 but at the end of the day, we will use it to buy goods and services that were discovered by genius minds. If you studied Brownian motion and the atomic theory, you will understand that these are more challenging and frustrating tasks than trading stocks.

Sorry folks that I have to digress.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 3:39pm On Feb 04, 2008

SavvyLanre:
Oga Pumping - Concerning, Zenith - if you look at the current & Forward PE of Intercon, Firstbank and Guaranty, and use that as a benchmark for Zenith, that boy would reach N58. But, because EOY is not till June, then i see its first turbulence at N52. Knowing that Zenith would deliver on good results.

N52 is still within the range I am predicting. What I am saying it that it will not stay there.

We should compare Zenith to all its peers. Zenith(24) actually has higher forward PE than UBA (15), UBN(18), Oceanic (17) and First Bank(22).

Agreed that Zenith usually maintains a premium but I don't see it maintaning a PE of around 27 when other contemporary stocks will have much lower forward PEs. One of the problems remains the high nominal price.

I will guess another 5% for Zenith tomorrow, then we will start to see some resistance. If not, all the better though.

If you look at all the banks maintaining a high PE in banking, the prices are below N30. It is the stocks that have prices above N40 that have lower PEs except Oceanic that is being weighed down by 22B big ones.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 2:30pm On Feb 04, 2008

As it was predicted the movement of the Elephant on Friday na demo. Even with the closing net bid, it could not continue with the momentum today.

It will be interesting to see what Zenith will bring to this segment now it is out of TS. I still think it will hit resistance around N50 when high volume profit takers try to lock in profit.

Folks are beginning to consider 5-10% margins in short term trades acceptable before the erasure of spreadsheet money.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:45am On Feb 04, 2008

upward:
Hello Oga pumping,
It's been a long time-o. I've been reading your posts, I see you've been busy ut find time to pop in a drop some lines. welldone-o.

Thanks bro. I dey try make I still put hand. I hope you are keeping very well and your stocks are moving "upward" never to come down. grin

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:30am On Feb 04, 2008

------------
I don't think UBA is a CICO stock. It is very strong fundamentally long term. I think the nominal price may be a disadvantage against CICO until some very serious rumour is in the air.
------------

iconbull:
recent trades on the NSE have shown that the pennystocks are more favored for price appreciatn, and UBA doesnt belong here, its time will come. learning how to trade "TRENDS" has been my major advantage on the NSE. fundamental and technical analysis don't work all the time.

I think you are only repeating my statement which I have pasted above your quote. Penny stocks will have adavantage short term which is why I say UBA is not really a CICO stock because the price will not just rise 20% or drop 20% without any strong reason. This is because it is fundamentally sound and will weather the storm of a bear market. However, it's price may not rise relatively as much of that of a penny stock in a bulls market. I suspect that for those that manage to hold on to UBA until March next year, their grins will widen into a laughter. ;

Penny stocks that rise based on their low nominal price will not do well long term. During the bear market their prices will drop like a pack of cards.

Penny stocks with good fundamentals is a different story of course. Their prices will rise faster and they will be able to retain most of the capital gains even in a bears market.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:22am On Feb 04, 2008

tommy t:
bros i will advice to get norton antvirus for your computer because avast is not known to be a strong antivirus,
after you might have got nortonantivirus go to there site (synmatic.com) check for spyware remover download and run it on your computer, am sure your computer will not remain thesame,

I found Avant more successful than Norton and MCafee in detecting and removing some deadly trojans I downloaded with Metastock. Why not reinstall your avant and run the virus scan again? Uninstall the Avant and delete all residual directories before doing this.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 9:41pm On Feb 03, 2008

Geees:
Hello all,
The team is still Super Eagles, faltering is allowed so long as they don't come to the earth to eat grass with chicken.

@ Mr Risky
Short/Long term:
Nestle, FBN, GTB, Chellarams, Okomu NGC, RTBriscoe, BOC, Vitafoam, etc Reason fundamentally sound and constantly making profit plus dividend payments.
CICO/GIGO/ZiZO,
?? UBA
My suggestions oh,

I don't think UBA is a CICO stock. It is very strong fundamentally long term. I think the nominal price may be a disadvantage against CICO until some very serious rumour is in the air.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 12:53am On Feb 03, 2008

Roland E:
GOOD DAY BROTHERS N SISTERS. I WANTED TO BUY ZENITH BANK FROM THE
SECONDARY MARKET @ N46.09k. PLEASE CAN SOMEBODY TELL ME AROUND WHEN IT
WILL BE LIFTED FROM TECHNICAL SUSPENSION. I WANTED TO BUY BEFORE THE PRICE
STARTS GOING UP. I KNOW THE PUBLIC OFFER CLOSED
ON THE 17th OF JANUARY. THANKS N GOD BLESS You.

Zenith should be out of TS between the next one or two weeks.

Personally, I don't expect any major rise in the price of Zenith short term after TS. At most, maybe 10% short term. I think there are too many traders that have positioned for this one and those that did large volumes will start profit taking early which will depress the price.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 12:19am On Feb 03, 2008

babagboin:
@princesege,
thanks prince for your suggestion but with all the bad news i have read about cashcraft on this site and my own cousin's experience that not really an option for now. i think i prefer to register with CSCS direct.

@pumping777, @dollyp @all
i think u said you're subscribe to CSCS in a previous thread, please tell me how u can go about subscribibg if you're non-resident. have tried all numbers and webpage, no luck so far.

PLS HELP A NEWBIE OUT!

Register on the CSCS website. Eventually you will be sent an email confirmation asking you to fill the identification form and make payment.

Download the form from the website, fill it and ask your broker to fill their portion, make the N2,500 payment for you and send in the form to CSCS. In a couple of weeks you should be set.

Note that you cannot register with CSCS directly. You still need a broker to complete the process.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 12:11am On Feb 03, 2008

Mr. Risky:
@Pumping777,

You may be right, but I look at growth stocks like Japaul, C & I Leasing and NASCON differently. Since they are growth stock, i enter them when i have the means. I never treat growth stocks as expensive so long as their potentials remain unchanged and are even improving. For sure, in the next few years these three stocks alone can grow to make anyone bouyant. At current price for me they are ok, as I am a medium to long termer. They still remain for me cheap

That these stocks have good potential is not in doubt. I am only trying to correct the impression that they are cheap. They are not.

The reason for choosing them is quite different which you have also confirmed.

The fact that a stock has the potential to make 100% capital gain does not mean it is cheap. There are cheap stocks on the exchange that will make very little capital gains. Japaul is growing based on sentiments. Based on the projections from the PO, the stock cannot justify it's current price but I suspect the price will continue to rise until the bonus issue comes to pass.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 9:48pm On Feb 02, 2008

Surprises:
Quite unlike us. I can see that many are not on board today, and infact since that photo was pasted. Hope you are not scared of the photo? It may turn out to a good sign that the BULL is around the corner

So sayest thou about the coming week. Which stock are you looking at to buy, and why? Please Gurus and all Gugurus tells us. Even we spectators have our comments about the stock to take position in this coming week as I foresee a bullish trend beginning from next week. Please don't mind that pikin, he is under treatment. So said Atkotogun

First please note that my buys are for minimum of 1year and if NSE disbehaviour well before that time and I hit more than 50%, I suddenly turn the spreadsheet joy into real joy, and take position in another opportunity. That's how I have been playing the game and I have been scoring. For instance I sold my Mbenefit last Friday at N5.20, and Lasaco N5.12. So that money is waiting for something else next week. Since insurance stocks release their results between May and September, some prices may still come down that can give up to 50% during the result expectant week, if not for these their POs and IPOs. For the next one year, the following stocks are cheap going by their forward projections which I always use for my choices:

Dangote Sugar
A G Leventis
C & I Leasing
Nigerian German Chemicals
First Bank
Oceanic
UBA
Bank PHB
FCMB
Diamond
Beta Glass
Flour Mills
Nigerian Breweries
Japaul (If them behave well)
NASCON
R T Briscoe
Vitafoam
Ikeja Hotels
May & Baker
Glaxo
Julius Berger
COSTAIN
Berger Paints
Guinness
Airline Services
ALL INSURANCE companies are good for CICO to augment you stakes in stable Blue Chips

Buy don't look back, the future is bright.

CAVEAT EMPTOR

Na small he remain make you list the entire NSE ke grin

The net is too wide. You should dig deeper and pick a few that you think will perform best.

Anyway, I have to disagree with you that ALL the stocks above are cheap based on forward projections from what we know now.

Examples. Japaul, CILeasing, Nascon.

I am not saying that these stocks will not do well but they are definitely not cheap based on fundamentals. Japaul is way way expensive.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 11:13pm On Feb 01, 2008

eniyanman:
my guy, na closing price you send o not outstanding shares. abeg no vex say I dey worry you.

No worries at all. Make u sef no vex jare. I noticed and corrected the link above.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 11:03pm On Feb 01, 2008

Mr. Risky:
TRANSNATIONWIDE EXPRESS

Smile, Smiler, Smilest!!!

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:59pm On Feb 01, 2008

eniyanman:
@pumping,
it seems the file doesnt include the number of outstanding shares. am i missing something?

My bad. Na so I dey do for Friday nights.

I have included a tab with the outstanding shares now.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=LMKGYEKA

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:52pm On Feb 01, 2008

As someone don post photo quiz. make I post my own brain teaser jo.

One company dey for NSE with capitalization less than N1B.

I come hear say the capitalization go move reach around N4B by year end. About N1B will come from rights issue and the balance should come from capital appreciation.

So if I do the numbers, that could mean 100% appreciation.

I beg una, which stock fit be this?

If you get am, come believe, make u grab a copy at a shop near you. No CICO for this one o.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:47pm On Feb 01, 2008

eniyanman:
Pumping, you are the 'men'! thanks.

To be clear, my list of outstanding shares already includes any known ordinary or preferential shares to be listed in future from PO's, Rights or even debt conversion including possible 25% oversubscription from POs.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:41pm On Feb 01, 2008

easimoni:
wetin una dey megaupload? No be virus sha because me self don dey download o! Mo gbo, mo ya!

Ha. I for clarify. It won't be useful to you. Just outstanding shares for companies.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:39pm On Feb 01, 2008

invisible!:
@pumping, you mean other stocks like UBA and Inter?

UBA is overipe for picking, I only wonder why it is still glued to the floor.

Yes, that is what I mean but I am not hopeful that any of them including FBN will move NOW. Let's see how Zenith does when it comes out of TS. I suspect it will not make it past around N50 either.

These stocks are glued to the floor because they are too heavy. Too much momentum required to keep them moving grin

and there isn't enough news to support such.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:35pm On Feb 01, 2008

eniyanman:
@pumping777,
howdy? please check your mail.

Collect from megaupload below.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ZOHG33XQ

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:29pm On Feb 01, 2008

invisible!:
Saw it somewhere earlier this evening, that FBN is on bid.

Another flight waiting to také off,

I think say na demo he go be. Elephant no go fit fly. Over 66M units was sold today which is more than the net bid left at the end of today.

I think it was a one off event probably by an institutional investor or the like. If not sha, other stocks in that range may follow suit.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 10:22pm On Feb 01, 2008

Big Treat now has a market capitalization of N34B. This is higher than 7UP at N24B. Now, which one will I take if I am asked to become the owner of one of the companies? huh

Of course I will go for 7UP that made a PAT of N1.2B in 2006. Let me see what Big Treat will come up with. I don't think it will be anything near that.

NSL has market capitalization of N66B. This is the same with UACN huh

. I wonder if it's even bigger than Mr. Biggs which is a subsidiary of UACN. See also that Big Treat has market capitalization that is more than half that of UACN grin

NSE and the manipulation of stock prices. grin

Na real wa.

Investment › Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians by pumping777(m): 2:58pm On Feb 01, 2008

bigjay01:
which kind competitors, many moons ago when i dey naija, the companies I have in mind are not quoted on NSE. As far as Road transport in Nigeria is concerned anyway.

A company does not have to be listed on the NSE to be competition for another listed company. ABC transport definitely has competition. I kniw they have cut a niche for themselves, but they are not the only ones there.

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