₦airaland Forum

bivins1:
@ALL,

e no easy bjluv. go to the new house and deal with your new stockbrokers and gradually sell off your stocks from the other brokers you were using if you no say you no fit speak too much grammar
Pumping how u dey?

Fine bro. How body dey for your side too?

Na work no gree me circulate as usual. Hopefully I will get a break soon.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1907986#msg1907986 date=1201811616]it will certainly not predict the NSE any day, look at FBN with a very good result just announced, did a one day rise and fell the very next day?

There used to be a time when a good result always guarantees a two weeks sustained bid. But these days, traders has turned everything on its head. Part of the explanation is the uniform calendar for banks. Most market insiders seem to think some banks will delay results till end of this yr.

All the same, let us watch and see.[/quote]Well, we should have predicted first Bank's price movement. All the banks that announced very good results do not have anything to show for it so far. UBA, PHB, Oceanic and now FBN. Zenith will soon join them. All these ones are going to be very sweet medium to long term sha. I think Oceanic will be the sweetest of them all. Gernerally, for stocks with prices above N30, it requires real news (like bonus) or solid rumour (like merger) for further northward movement. The stock go just dey go round and round and still dey same same place as Baba 70 talk am.

I have commented on the low nominal price syndrome. See how the insurance stocks have tried to normalize prices. The bank stocks that are moving positively in price are the ones at the lower end that had fair results. Access, FCMB, Guaranty and Diamond. For now, these ones can be sweet all the time. Small news, rumour or interim result can cause movement.

If Unity Bank comes out with a fairly decent result see how much better it will do than all these banks in the short run. Yes, Unity Bank!!.  

easimoni:
Obama does fumble when he's not thoroughly prepared: na Mrs Easimoni first talk am self. HRC's track record? hmmmmmm HRC introduced GSM to naija (wait, that was OBJ's ONLY achievement".  ) Never said HC had a good record (as a Senator,no, since they don't do much anyway. But a 1st Lady, the failed healthcare initiative was a good one, shame it didn't work because the situation has only gotten worse) but the Clinton's time was great apart from Monica keeping that dress.  

Anyway, I wonder why I even care, I'd be a republican if I had the option. _{I can really hear Yodi screaming traitor} They are on my side of the gay and abortion issues. Go Huckabee!

HRC has come out worse in most of the debates simply because she speaks from both sides of her mouth trying to please everyone.

The only thing on record for HRC was a failure. Intiative or not, she could not pull it off. Why does everyone keep referring to it.

At the end of the day, you said Clinton's era was great. which Clinton? Mr. or Mrs? Why are they refusing to make public all the correspondence between Mr. & Mrs. during Mr. Clinton's presidency? We will soon find out that she had nothing to offer then and definitely not now.

Apologies for the digression my people. I remain loyal.

easimoni:
FBN shares (7.6B units) were listed on the 12th of Dec

He cannot endorse either one because the guy is going to be bridesmaid VP candidiate again. He must play his cards right.

I'm for the Clintons _{(did I hear you scream "traitor?)} Methinks Obama is a rock-star; too quick a rise and no track record. He was a nobody only 4 years ago and now is the front-runner. He has no negatives because he's done nothing. It's easy for him to say he opposed the war from the beginnning; he wan't yet a senator when it was time to vote. Also seems to fumble a lot when he's debating instead of speaking. But he seems like a good guy and I think he'll win.

Ha!!! I fear you o. No track record for Obama Track record only starts in the US senate? Obama "fumbles" and HRC has a "good" track record Tell me ONE thing that HRC has done. No need to argue this one.

tonyjon:
Hi Pumping,

Please there was a post by WANAJ0 some months back that had to do with Company's dividend and bonus announcements. It talks about dates when dividends were paid out and also end of the year for all the companies on NSE list.

If you have it, kindly post it again or better still send it to me through this e-mail address:jontony20@yahoo.com.

Thanks.

Peace.

Collect from megaupload below.

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=ZOHG33XQ

Surprises:
@Pumping777,  you may be truly amused by the reasoning, but you will agree that another factor to consider in selecting stocks for short to medium term is MARKET PSYCHOLOGY.  The way people reason and indeed what people believe have a great impact on the NSE and indeed any other market any where in the world.  The role that share BONUS plays on NSE is a good example.  But plus and minus, stock trading is a game of volume.  What a sound Penny stock will give you in a week for same amount will be different from what a blue chip stock will give.  Considering price and growth prospect, I think that is why you chose AG Leventis and C & I Leasing as well as Japaul?  Or do you have another reason?  Please share, we learn every day.

Yes, I am amused by the reasoning but I am not contesting that it helps move the price of low cap stocks.

faketan:
Thank you so much. I already have some GTB but may be I should get more. Or do you suggest I jump into FBN.
Could you please suggest any other stock with good prospect medium long term please. I trust your expertise .

Medium or long term, I have my radar on CILeasing and AGLeventis. Wait for the profit takers to depress the price. It's already happening with CILeasing. I believe this stock will continue a gradual for consistent upward movement. Also keep an eye open for Japaul for reasonable price depression. There is more to be made from the stock this year.

Surprises:
Very soon prices of First Bank, Zenith Bank, UbA, Interconti and UBN will become very high for small networth investors like us.  For that reason I have been piling up stocks of 2nd Tier banks with good fundamentals.  If you ask me, I will chose Diamond bank any day any time. It is fundamentally strong, and price can still give you good volumes.   Another that I will be piling up is Oceanic and Bank PHB, soon all these will get to the 40 to 50 naira bracket.  Just my naive opinion, but I can tell you, those of us who have taken tutorials under the feet of WindyWendy, Wanajo, Fatherof20000, Pumping, easimoni, Roughcut etal, for the past one year on this Forum can also pass for a guru anywhere else

Well, I am always amused by this reasoning. It has no basis but simply because a lot of people believe this, it keeps driving up the price of stocks with lower nominal prices.

Volume means nothing if you don't factor in the price. N1M worth of First Bank today is that same worth as N1M worth of LawUnion. The number of units mean nothing.

Surprises:
Pumping,  Oceanic too set a new RECORD of any Nigerian Bank recording N8.8bn in any first quarter of financial year.  NEW RECORDS ARE BEING SET!  The future truly holds great prospects for Nigerian banks as prophesied by Moneywise.  (Hope no pound would be foolish this time, sha )

Dat na old record   Even Zenith beat that record. Abi na Carl Lewis get 100M record Just kidding sha. I get your point. All the same, I don't expect any significant rally in the prices of these stocks short term.

faketan:
@pumpping et al

I am considering procuring diamond bank and or Giunea insurance. What can you say about them?
I will apreciate your contribution. I am not short termer(medium to long term).
Any other suggestions will be welcome

Cheers

Diamond is not in my radar. I know 9 months result is expected in March but I am worried that those that requested for ordinary shares from the last GDR offfer will have their shares credited by then. This may prevent any upswing and may even depress the price and provide a better entry point for medium or long term.

Guinea Insurance I know little about. The fundamentals are not great. Forward PE of around 74. This is quite high.

I am generally not looking in the direction of the insurance companies right now with the fear of TS all around.

mutu1:
FIRST BANK OF NIGERIA PLC
UNAUDITED NINE MONTHS RESULT ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2007
2007 2006 %CHANGE
GROSS EARNINGS N105.214b N63.722b 65.11
PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION N32.812b N19.259b 70.37
TAXATION (N6.890b) (N4.439b) 55.21
PROFIT AFTER TAXATION N25.922b N14.820b 74.91


ELEPHANT DON LAND BE THAT!!!

Over N10B PAT in the last quarter alone. Na new record be that already.

This na better African Elephant, the real king of the jungle _{No disrespect to Mr. Lion}

@WindyWendy - You are probably right. I may be listing Lasaco's shares twice. I assumed the original PO and Rights shares have been listed.

SuperGuy:
LASACO O/S SHARES

With the share listing of 6.8b units, Lasaco assurance presently
has 8.2b units and with a q3 result of 865m and expectation of
bumper result at year end (probably in the region of #1.5b), Lasaco
is a good buy and better than most insurance stocks. This is my
candid opinion and particularly when the coy is not doing po having
just collected #4.2b warehoused in cbn in Nov 2007.

Statement Withdrawn.

windywendy:
14.2b  . Naaa, not sure that's correct. They previously had 1.4b and just listed additional 6.85b. Can't possibly be 14.2b 

1.4B ke? Meaning they had a PE of 5.5x? I don't think so. This must be the figure IBTC used to come up with that 5x PE for Crusader in December.

It was actually 7.4B that was outstanding before. Now it is 14.2B. Scary forward PE of 55x.

windywendy:
@Easimoni, for LASACO, I have 8.27b shares outstanding. Can you please confirm if this is correct? Thanks.

I no be easi o but,

I have 14.2B shares. I won't bother calculating the ratios

windywendy:
Ah, I see you learnt your lesson from the PHB saga eh?

And I did too make I no lie at all

My very good friends and myself still dey that flight sha. The new thrust propeller from Boeing may just do the trick.  

rolands:
@PUMPING777
Can I please get your opinion and advice on GUINNESS and CUTIX which am now considering for SELL instructions? I have held this two since last year September, and have lost considerably with CUTIX, and GUINNESS has been stagnant. I will appreciate your candid advice,

I am not sure about Guiness. The Q-1 result was poor but they could come out with a good Q-2 result. Even then I don't see the stock rising beyond N140-N150. I would not go for it.

I cannot recommend Cutix. It is an expensive stock and the company's profits are dwindling. Logically not a candidate for me.

NBA:
Na Pumping cause am!!! 

The sharp volume rise by Ikeja Hotels yesterday told me profit takers were lurking and price depression was very likely today. I never wanted to sell now but I just had to make the most of it and lock in my profit.

@Frankiri - Please accept my condolences. May the good lord console you and your family.

ololufemi:
@ Pumping,

Are you sure that most of those stocks can all be sold in a day. Buying stocks you can easily dispose off is necessary with funds like that.

There is a big difference between spreadsheet money and real cash Oga Pumping oh.

Not trying to ursurp your authority on stocks but just my view.

I am sur most of your stocks are still being held.

@ Wanaj0,

My brother, we thank GOD oh for his mercies. I sure sey Frankiri dey hibernate somewhere.

About the Zenith offer or any PO offer, more than 5000 units and the person go get returned money.

I bought about some units of PHB on PO but did max of 5000 on each form.

That is the way forward on the bank POs now.

It might even reduce to 3000 sef.

Say International breweries and one of my guy wey dey rejoice don wan sing new song oh. I even warn the guy. How you go carry 650,000 buy international breweries when PO are now being underwritten 80% by the issuing houses and the volume of receipts is even astronomical.

That obalende suya wey people even talk about on this forum go get over subscription.

I think you should look at the list again. I don't recommend penny stocks that don't do good volumes.

As an example CILeasing trading about N60M worth of stocks today. You can put your N5M worth inside. Japaul traded about N100M worth today so what is the problem? I'm not talking about stocks like Chellerams or Aluminimum extrusion.

I sold 400K units out of my Ikeja Hotel units today. No problem at all.

I have sold all my UNIC, Beta Glass, Japaul, CILeasing, Lawunion and now most of my Ikeja Hotels. I am now left with these miserable banking stocks which I am thinking of selling off at a net profit of 5% . I am only talking of my short term trading account sha o.

@wanaj0

I understand when the portfolio grows to a particular level, it will not be possible to concentrate on such stocks again but for the growing period, these are still valid candidates.

wanaj0:
na small small, 10k today, 5k tomorrow. Note that most of the shareholders cannot even locate their certificates. Some rats don chop am. So it is not easy. If you enter eraly and stay long enough, na X 10 be those kind of stocks.


big time brokers no dey get those kind of shares to BUY. na hustlers dey buy am. So if you dey use the psychadelic brokers, no show. Get someone wey go dey hustle for floor ringing bell for the stock. Some PP's were done like that. Guinea insurance was one. universe Re was another. Even the issuing houses no go get name.


You msut look forsuch stocks when everybody dey avoid am!!!! That's why it is for long term. Once you however get in, na enjoyment you dey.

that's the problem with timing the market. You cannot!!!

Now when you talk of short term, it also depend on your starting point. That's what people miss when they do analysis. They all don't have the same cycle (that will change with uniform end year and it will make the market dull because peaks and troughs will occur at the same time and no more CICO).

Apart from banking stocks, many few sectors have the amount of units to amke you a 'billionaire'. That's why people get stuck with the banking stocks. If you are trading with small funds, you can be doing the otehr sectors but for the big tickets, na banking. just stay in and cool temper. you go enjoy later.

I still believe that you can make the billionaire's list faster today with other stocks apart from banking and there are very good candidates and I'm not talking about penny stocks without good fundamentals.

A friend traded around N55M on the following stocks between November last year and this January. AGLeventis, Beta Glass, CILeasing, Lawunion, Japaul, Unic and Crusader. To be fair he also carried a lot of Japaul over from TS. No banking stock. I never agreed with his portfolio but he insisted he was not touching any high cap company. Net profit to the bank was about N26M. These are the little drops that make the ocean.

Agreed, maybe his luck will not always hold but the point is this. Nothing in banking could have given such returns in those same 2 months as it were, CICO or otherwise. I also traded on all the stocks above but together with banking and some other stocks that drove down my average.

He has his eyes on N500M and the plan is definitely not to hit the target in a year but in a few years it is still possible to make all the money he wants looking at other sectors. On the NSE, nominal price matters so much.

windywendy:
Hmmm, that flight still dey? Pumping777, you still dey fly am? Anyway, from my own perspective, the next thing that can make this stock move up will be the 9month result, which should be out sometime in May. But the thing is that before then, the PO shares will be listed (March 3, according to prospectus) and PO sellers will work their usual deal on the share price and create further buy opportunities for those of us that exited at 30 something  . But then again, wonders may happen and things could very well turn out differently . . . So make  your decisions.

No o. The flight don crash land since last week. I dey hang on to the fuselage. As a captain sha I no fit abandon my ship(abi na plane sef). If you get spare aircraft wing make you throw one or two down to me here, I must get what is left to the terminal building 

And just watch that things will indeed turn out differently

kpineo:
daily position.
AIRPHB about to crash, assume crash position crew. .
NSE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!God dey, holding on to my seat for now.

About to crash ke Since when? The tin don crash since now. Na on fuselage I dey hang now    I see say all my passengers don dis-embark a long time ago

When new flight start I no go gree carry una o

wanaj0:
Not looked at the market closely so was not focussing on those little little stocks. You can however check Aluminium Extrusion. But if everyone on Nairaland placed an order, too bad!!! Today na only two deals of 4,750 units were done.

NCR don commot for ground so I no dey track that one again. I look for small companies whose products are in high demand or being turned around.

If you can get Thomas Wyatt also, na money be that!!!

Aluminiun Extrusion? I was chasing it since it's last interim result becasue of the good fundamentals but it is too scarce. It has not even sold done up to 200K units this year!!

@wanajo

Ha. You just touched on my point. I am not "complaining" that the banking stocks are losing value. I am just looking at it that it may not be the right time to dive deeper into the sector pending when the sentiments change. So if the price of the banking stocks will be this way until the next batch of results I want to put my money to work elsewhere.

My trading portfolio has very limited banking stocks. Despite the volumes and capitalization, I have realized that I don't get significant gains from banking stocks short term.

In my little experiece so far, my non-banking stocks have consistently outperformed banking stocks in the short term. Yes, my long term portfolio has about 40% banking stocks but that is a different kettle of fish.

wanaj0:
Now, as I no be money BAG like you, the small volume is still good enough for me. I am not interseted in buying the whole company

wanaj0:
The losses also are marginal. same thing in the other sectors like insurance. So no big deal. The market will stay flat or a little drop until the results starts to come to the market. BOC is the next online I think.

Insurance is neutral. Ups and downs evenly spread. There are even 5% gains.

These bank stocks are slowly but steadily losing value. The interest in the sector is just not holding despite all the "good" results we have seen so far.

wanaj0:
Inter was the first to hint of share reconstruction. Not sure how that will help the share price going forward!!!

Inter is seriously rumoured to be going for share reconstruction. Let us say it is being discussed. A stokebroking house adviced investors to hold as "this will have a positive impact on the stock and those of it's peers". Don't ask me how.

wanaj0:
Can't see the bleeding. Apart from Platinum, no bank lost up to 3%.

UBA and Ocenaic are tantalizing right now.

Anyone on the UNTL flight?

BOC still dey sweet my belle but I dey disembark

For stocks that have not seen any recent prolonged bull run, I don't expect 5% drops. However, for stocks that appear fairly or even under-priced, drops of 2%-3% appear significant.

We can understand the situation with Oceanic but other stocks defy any logic as far as I can see. Only Unity, Intercontinental and IBTC made any gains today and only Intercontinental's gain was not marginal.

yodiyokun:
My people don't be in a hurry to attribute the blood letting to Tribune's article.

Remember, Fatheof2's theory about month end interest payments - Anyway those loading up UBA - this is a defiinitely good time to load up on it.

The "rumour" is not only in Tribune. Like I said, I don't believe it, but don't discount those that do. No problem for long termers but CICOers could be adversely impacted.

wanaj0:
What's the definition of medium term bearing in mind the 6months tenor?

Even though I don't consider 6 months sufficient for medium term at least he can target that maximum window he has. He can target companies that should come out with up to 2 interim results in that time. 1 - 2 years will be a more reasonable period to consider medium term.