₦airaland Forum

@ wanajo, please i have two questions for you;
1) with BAGCO going public ,do you feel there is any point still taking position in flour mills, or should one take position in both
2)i have been thinking about buying a stock with december year end such as, wapco, beta glass or dangote sugar, and then by march i will use the profit from these coys. to take a stake in flour mills. do you think this is a good idea??
and which of these would you recommend;
1.wapco @ 64n
2.beta glass @ 14n
3.dangote sugar @ 35n.
4.longman @ 14n.
and finally, which other good stocks would you recommend for good long term or medium term value.
thank you very much. pls reply

boy have i missed this thread. been gone three days and missed five pages.
@ easimoni, on costain vs. bank phb, not too sure about costain been the winer. they might apply for triple the number of shares they have now, construction stocks dont have such a high pe right now. bank PHB is growing at a mad rate and the banking sector is still just scratching the surface. why do u favour costain so much.

easimoni:
That wouldn't be because of the 8.6B 1Q PAT no shaking graciously shared with us? . It's very impressive. Shows they are on their way to N30B at FY. But let's not forget that they are setting us up for the N250B offer and 5B new shares will push the forward EPS to just under N2.

8.6bn PAT thats brilliant, might do a full year 40bn PAT. nav wa ooooo.
@` easimoni, my problem with wema now is not thatthey wont do well but they sure take a while to release their results dont they? that half year better come out soon oooo.

but look at first inland? they had a terrible result yet they are still trading at 11 naira. i know WEMA will fall but it might not take such a beating, the market is known to be irrational on many occasions. hope we all sell soon.

omoyeni is a disgrace!!! how could he have said the result would make the price go haywire. well i guess it did go haywire
by the way, the dude that asked about crusader, excercise caution!!! u dont know how many shares they are yet to list from all acqusitions, get some but dont put all yuor money into it.

today was a terrible day for the banks, every major one lost, the chemical sector is strong though

thank God i dumped most of it last week. that risk was too much for me. my only prayer is their half year will be much better. i still wont give up on wema.
so what about the 1.7bn interim result that people saw

i am kicking myself for not having any COSTAIN earlier, how can there be a 30% discount of rights over po price!!!!!!!!
@ easimoni, i know you hate pos but this might be one worth jumpnig into.

wanajo, wema really is running mad, closed on net bid today so might even gian more tomorrow. the funny thing is the net bid is not even maximum which makes me feel some few people know something we dont.

whats really going on with WEMA?, thats 15% in three days. this market can really be funny at times.

wanajo, on BETA GLASS when does this ban on glass bottles by NAFDAC take effect. and if this is true, dont you think attracting a pe of 20 will be optimistic as people will tread cautiously knowing future profits wil be affected.

WEMA has gained 5% for two consecutive days now!!! i smell a rat somewhere, i might just hold on till the end of next week and see what happens.and flour mills seems to be bleeding, a good entry price for anyone.

RoughCut:
Oh yes trust me i know a lot about the nigerian investment and operating climate and Costain have totally re-engineered their business model ----->

https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria?topic=52566.msg1552345#msg1552345

There's no question of me not taking a position i just need to know what my entry price should be not too sure if it's going to go down to N13 as some technical analysts would like us to believe

costain right now has the best fundamentals out there second only to FLOUR MILLS. forecast eps is 2.90, if you can get costain at 17naira, jump in, dont forget a po is coming out soon so you might get 30% on that cos i know they will not want to come out below 20 naira. not sure about the long term yet.

wanaj0:
No go get heart attack with this your Wema OOO. Too me, it is quite a risky venture.

Tending to shift towards Diamond Bank now. It appears Actis will be injecting the funds now. That should affect their bottomline.



WAPCO and Flour Mills looking good. May start with WAPCo and shift to Flour Mills in February next year.

@ wanajo, well put! problem is diamond is about hitting 19 naira and that may be an expensive entry price.
i also want to hit WAPCO first then moveto flour mills but my concern is by january, flour mills may begin a slight bull run.
there is a rumor going round of possible bonus by WAPCO.

@ easimoni,
i recall you and wanajo have has some conversations on BETA GLASS. i never really took notice but from my calcs., it looks pretty solid , its half year PAT was 321million and its half year eps is 0.7. its full yeareps projected to be 1.4 or there abouts and should be 20 naira to say the least. am i correct in these calculations and what do u think about this stock ?

i know they had a rights issue last year to clear off 500million naira debt, maybe thats what the problem is.
or maybe na bird flu affect them

hey all, is it true about the oceanic e-allotment of the po shares,
that would be a first.
anyone know when costain or diamond banks offer will be out.

pumping777, i can see the nice work youve been doing here. keep it up.
however, i must correct u om bank phb, the po will be a DFEINITE YES. itsgonna be offered at 17 naira which is a trailing pe of 17.7, thats the lowest pe you can get now in this sector. its projected PAT is gonna be above 15 billion. this offer should be more fundamentally sound than the fcmb offer, but i want to seewhat thier plans for the money raised will be. yet again, nice one

@ easimoni, how is work? havent seen u in a while on the thread .
BTW, has the 2nd season of heroes started in the H-town

anyway, i have been concerned about our crusader calculations, i hear they acquired some companies , that means we cant accurately ascertain the amount of shares they have.so our calculations are inconclusive. i know they are a top coy. but i think it might take longer before we can get appreciation out of it.

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Re: Stock Market Tips For Nigerians
« #3395 on: Yesterday at 10:56:11 PM »

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@ wanajo,
you said flour mills has the best fundamentals but what about costain? forecast epsof 2.9 for a 20 naira stock gives a forwardpe of 7(yes 7), thats almost too good to be true, i know they arew coming out with a po and rights that will dilute the earnings but what do you think about costain ?

2) also, you pointed out earlier that you feel longman has more value than university press, but why do you think so? longmans half year result shows growth of 27% while UPL shows 95%, the only sentiment i put to longman is that it has fewer shres and has not declared bonus for quite some time to my knowledge.
please holla.

@ wanajo,
you said flour mills has the best fundamentals but what about costain? forecast epsof 2.9 for a 20 naira stock gives a forwardpe of 7(yes 7), thats almost too good to be true, i know they arew coming out with a po and rights that will dilute the earnings but what do you think about costain ?

2) also, you pointed out earlier that you feel longman has more value than university press, but why do you think so? longmans half year result shows growth of 27% while UPL shows 95%, the only sentiment i put to longman is that it has fewer shres and has not declared bonus for quite some time to my knowledge.
pls holla.

Temmie10:
FCMB's offer is good but its not all that.
Still trading at a trailing pe close to 30.
And if you look at forecast eps for 2008 and prices that stocks shld trade on rationally, then there is not too much between fcmb and fidelity.
Its obvious all the firms are going for forecasts that will double the share price in 1 yr since that is what appeals to the Nigerian investor.
So all their foreward PEs are very similar, all within the same range, all of them.
BUt having said that, the banks have a way of meeting their forecasts more often than not.

If what we considered the forecasts alone, Access would stand miles ahead of all these other offers but we know better .

temmie10, i dont completely agree with you. fidelity has a forecast eps of 0.8, for a company that will have 22bn shares, that means they will have to get over 200% growth just to acheive that target. fcmb, on the other hand have released Q1 result and it already shows 133% growth and its forecast PAT was already 15bn based on that result, FCMB looks far more promising , i would compare this to the zenith 16.50k offer two years ago, maybe you wont get the same apprecition but its a good offer, thats for sizzle

@ easimoni, whats your take on flour mills it has good fundamentals but its Q1`result only showed 27% growth. that should take it to 90 naira at best. yet every reputed brokerage firm recommends flour mills like you could double your money or something. do u think it can perform better than this in a sector where the margins are pretty thin in comparision with the banks

@ wanajo, FCMB looks like been the most solid banking offer out of the latest ones. and its projections make sense cos they have already acheived 130% growth fromQ1 result. better than fidelity by miles and miles.
been offerd at a pe of 23, which aint too bad for banks and a forward pe of 14, the lowest of all banks, (outstanding shares inclusive)

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1591545#msg1591545 date=1192621494]Thought GTB half year result is due? Should we expect it this month? Is Bank PHB pursuing GTB? What with their first quarter results of N3.5b, N3.5b? Many things are happening [/quote]not likely!!!! GTB s profit is forecasted to be 18bn. bank PHB is 14bn. gtb will also have fewer shares after the po.
gtb is one of the best banks going forward.

wats the sudden love with ibtc shares its gone past the 16naira tender offer. despite its modest fundamentals.

Iwerebor:
[center]Hello everyone.
Is there an explanation for Lasaco having a very high EPS and a low PE?
Anyone know of a good source for EPS data. NSE website seems off duty today.
Other sources I have seen so far seem to conflict.
Please some one help me with the current EPS of Lasaco and NEM insurance and confirm to me whether both are the highest in the Insurance sector. Thanks.
[/center]

lasaco are yet to list 6 billion shares from the po done earlier, if you factor that in the eps is 15k, so it should be fair at 3 naira.

easimoni:
Personally, If any company I own declares a bonus, I watch it rally for a few days and then issue a DUMP (not SELL) order! I can't stand to wait around for my shares to show up (have a colleague waiting for a Conoil bonus from 3 years ago) or to see the fundamentals get bungled by the host of innumerate (mathematically illiterate) analysts who won't (or can't?) factor new shares into the EPS/PE calcs. I always get chastised for the attitude but I believe bonuses are simply a distraction. I hope ALL the companies I own give a bonus at the FY so I can watch the rally and then DUMP them.

amen to that.
i dont see any more banks giving bonus anymore, except maybe UBA or union. i think a lot of people do the exact same thing as easi says and let other people wait around for a while.in the near future, i think people wont be foled by bonuses anymore.

@ temmie 10,
na wa for you where have you bin? abi we dey fight
good to hear from you sha. hope all is well.

its amazing how the market can act sometimes.
access was on net bid for two months,at 19 naira and after all the excitement with the ts been lifted ,it moves a bit and goes straight back to 19. i hope no one here bought at a premium. to think we were all saying it should hit 25naira this week. my bad.
still, at 19 naira, it looks very good going forward, would advise people to take position now, cos it looks relatively cheap at this price.
and whats with intecontinentals sudden run.

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1588795#msg1588795 date=1192537309]My Peace,
If not for the hyperactivity at the Primary Market and the non release of the insurance funds in the Escrow account with CBN, Crusader should be trading in the region of 7-8 naira by this time. So at the current price of between 4 - 5 Naira, it is ok by me. Indeed my average pile up price so far has been N4.52. And yet NO SHAKING.

It is rewarding to believe in what one is doing. My philosophy of life is BE GENUINELY CONVINCED IN WHAT YOU ARE DOING AND THEN THE RESULTS COULD BE EITHER WAY. In that case I could proudly tell myself "You have acted rationally afterall".

I bought some 100,000 of LASACO at N3.75. STILL NO SHAKING. I heard someone shouting that he/she bought LASACO at more than N3? Why? You need to do your home work before buying into any company. You buy the COMPANY not the units. What is the company going forward? That for me is the most important question. A company may not have been doing well in the past etc, but having now rebranded and with accompanying results, what is the company going forward? Some of the insurance companies are seating up now, soon it will become unavoidable for them to aligned their practices to global best practices as it now happening in the banking sector. GTB is now on the London Stock Exchange, after passing through very stringent rules. Last year it was not there, GOOD TO BE POSITIVE AND REALISTIC.[/quote]well said. very well said

MyPeace:
Thank you Mr Risky, its well understood now. But do you think crusader price will still crash down wards?? l pray it does so in the meantime, so that l can partake.

get crusader now!!! the fact that its only crusader and wapic that havent taken a bashing recently tells you something. it might be a two year stock, but there is a lot of promise in crusader, i only hope this palava is sorted out soonest .