₦airaland Forum

Teenom:
@Naijadr

Am I sensing regret in joining NRNUBA?I'm about 2 hours away from sending my documents by DHL to Marina for the account opening?I have not quite got the big guns yet to join Zenith et al. Any Suggestions other that Cashcraft, say with 400KCash

@Everyone who hasn't read the thread from Pages 1-200,

Haha actually no, took me about 3mths before I settled on them for folks entering like me that didnt have N1mil or N5mil minimum, plus it also allowed me to have a bank acct. Where are u located, Temitope the US NRN rep is absolutely wonderful, he never gets tired of my constant emails, or my cancellation orders that come a min after sending a buy order
I also sent mine by DHL to Marina c/o Temitope, took 3 business days from US, and my current/checking acct was opened the next day and CSCS a few days later.
Usually when I issue a buy order, if the stock is readily available, they'll get it by the next business day, and then the rep will email me invoice the following day. I usually send my buy orders at 8am Nigerian time, so that its the first thing he sees, but lately I've been doing it at 2pm Nigerian time so I can see the update from the NSE for that day. The stock brokerage section of UBA stops taking orders at 4pm every day
Do u have a bank acct? if not then UBA is awesome, cause u get to have that, plus when u send money, u are sending it to your bank acct.
I'm sure by early 2008, their online portal will be available, plus all the other perks such as the Mortgage Loan option is extremely good ($40k-$350k and up to $500k for CEOs of big companies).

Also with NRN know that even though N100k is needed to open the current acct in addition to the N250k for capital market acct, u only need N5k to keep current acct open. That wasnt made clear to me initially but once I found out, I pretty much transferred all the money in my current acct to my capital market acct as I am not planning on being in Naija in the next few mths, so no point having it chilling there for now.

NBA:
@Naijadr,
Nice post.
It's knida early, insomnia?

haha yup its 4:22am EST on my end, up late writing doing a clinical research writeup, and lurking on here cause I know those in Naija are up and moving, and should be posting

SOme proshare articles for newbies in the NSE, good basic stuff here

Starting out in confidence with NSE
http://www.proshareng.com/assets/user/pdf/l2e_starting_out_with_confidence_in_the_NSE.pdf

Making money in the NSE
http://www.proshareng.com/assets/user/pdf/l2e_making_money_in_the_nigerian_stock_market.pdf

Stock Selection Process
http://www.proshareng.com/assets/user/pdf/l2e_stock_selection_process.pdf

http://www.proshareng.com/learntoearn/index.php

Free registration might be required to open it up

Oooh thanks much yodiyokun for that spreadsheet!!

UBA publishes their report on Proshare

http://www.proshareng.com/myproshare/portal_articles.php?id=1333

Stock Summary

Recommendation: Buy

Sector: Banking

Current Price: N52.60

Target Price: N62.17

EPS : N1.87 (’07), N3.34 (2008e)

RoE : N19.8 (’07), N21.7 (2008e)

Div Yield : N2.3 (’07), N2.7 (2008e)

P/E : N29.0 (’07), N15.8 (2008e)

wanaj0:
Let me share some experience of losses with you.

Bought busines times and check for stocks with the lowest PE's. Savannah Bank was one of them. So Bought 10,000 units at 0.80!!!! Never bothered to find out about the facts behind the figures!!!!

Gave an instruction to my Broker to buy UNTL. Did not specify a price limit. Then it was about 2.00. many months later, I got a contract note that they've executed my order at 4.65. Since then, no other without limits whether BUY or SELL. Also, I have expiry dates for my orders. Sometimes I validate them everyday.

Sold Okomu to buy Presco. Well Okomu released a bad interim result so I sold. Presco released a good interim result so I bought. At year end, Presco's result was so bad that I sold fast. Though the loss was minimal (less than 5% after charges) can't help but laugh at myself. Exceptional items can affect results greatly. So factor that in when making projections. Presco had an exceptional item that reduced their profits.

Can't remember any other loss

So hope ALL can see that I am human.

No point talking about the gains.

Ah thanks for sharing, I just had a similar wahala with Crusader, issued a buy order a while back, forgot about it since it wasnt purchased then, till last week when broker bought it, luckily it was a very small order but at N5.01 I just shook my head. I decided then to put buy limit, now it also makes sense to put sell limit, didnt think of that. I like the date expiration as well, I'm going to be applying those concepts since it takes my broker like 2days to buy/sell.
Very much appreciated!

Thanks for that spreadsheet, I've been an FSDH subscriber for a while, so its so easy to update the price column

oga jehosaphat, thanks for the shout out, I noticed it was page 199 and was waiting for someone else to christen pg 200, this forum is amazing, I actually read through it all b4 I joined the NSE in Oct and I'm officially addicted. 2008 will be a good year for all of us oh, Amen!
I love reading other people's testimony (profits made) and losses as well because it shows me what to do and what I should maybe not do

jehosaphat:
Personally Saluting

Wanajo
Temmie10
Easimoni
Fatherof2
Windywendy ( welcome back)
Yodiyokun
Aktopgun
Roughcut ( enjoy your proverbs very much)
Gees
Barge
EMMAACHILE
Pumping777
Rob-roy
Frankiriri ( Find time to visit)
My peace
Naijadr ( Thanks for info about UBA NRN)
Seun for your initiative and website
All Others who I didnt mention for time ( I got to run, Time to chop! )

Happy Christmas, happy Year end, May we continue to prosper. Amen!

Looking beyond the figures in analyzing Public Offers

http://businessdayonline.com/Economic-Watch/Market-Outlook/1280.html

In a season of offers by quoted companies, especially firms in the banking sector of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), it is important for investors to seek to look beyond the rhetoric, commentaries and celebrated endorsements by leading lights in the market, economy, politics and society at large.

An investor therefore needs to be able to narrow down the list of stocks that is in front of him/her and research same.

Nowadays, there are a ton of great resources available out there for researching stocks, and fortunately most of them are free. Online research is becoming more and more popular because of its convenience and ease of use. The NSE exchange site allows you to see the stock performance over a period, the Proshare website gives you analysts commentaries on stock, annual accounts, equity research notes and fund managers report while the online editions of newspapers and other websites shares news and analysis on quoted stocks allow you to make intelligent decisions.

Once you’ve gathered the facts, you should then perform the analysis. Different investors use different methods for determining what stocks to buy. Most investors prefer fundamental analysis, although there are also a large number who focus on technical analysis. Whatever one you decide to use, here are a few final considerations to keep in mind:

•Focus on the market capitalisation, not the per-share price. The market capitalisation is the per-share price times the number of shares outstanding. In essence, this is how much you would have to pay to buy the whole company. Every company has a different number of shares outstanding, making per-share price comparisons meaningless. For this reason, a stock which is trading at N40 per share might actually be cheaper than a stock trading at N5 per share. This doesn’t mean that price per share is completely unimportant; some technical analysts believe it can provide clues to where the stock will go next but for fundamental analysis it’s really not important.

* There is no perfect stock screen, because every investor is looking for something different. Some are looking for growth, others for value, still others for dividend income. The screens you apply should be done with your unique goals in mind.

To help you understand how this works, lets us review a current offer – Afribank Nigeria Plc.

Valuation

It would be appropriate to adopt the approach taken by First Securities Discount House (FSDH) to arrive at a fair value for Afribank Plc by using four (4) valuation metrics which are: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Future Earnings (DFE), Maintainable Earnings (ME) and Price to Earnings Relative (PER) valuation methods.

In this valuation approach, the three-year dividend projection and the forecast PAT of the bank for the years ending 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The five (5)-year historical PATs of the bank for the years ended 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 is factored in. Thereafter, exceptional items paid in 2005 and 2007 are adjusted for. A beta value of 0.74 derived from the 5-year historical share price, a risk free rate of 9.25% which is the coupon rate on the 7-year bond issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in the month of September 2007 and a risk premium of 8% are used to confirm the analysis.

The parameters generates a cost of capital of 15.17 % (the discount rate used) applying the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A growth rate into perpetuity of 11% was used. The inflation rate as recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the end of the financial year of the bank is used to bring the historical PAT’s to current value. To ensure that all factors were properly accounted for, appropriate weights for the values used were applied in such a way that higher weight were assigned to the recent values.

Further, the average P/E ratio of 30.69x which is the average for the banking industry as at 18th October, 2007 was used after removing three banks, two with the highest P/E ratio and one bank with the lowest P/E ratio. The PE ratio of 30.69x, though appearing high is justified based on the thinking that the earnings growth potential of the banking industry which we consider in the region of 35% justifies the current high P/E ratio.

This, and in order to arrive at the value of each share we used 5,108,433,332 (excluding the bonus shares of 1 for 5 shares which were in issue as at 31st March, 2007) and 10,130,118,000 Ordinary Shares which would be in issue in 2010 after the Public Offer.

The values per ordinary share of Afribank, using the valuation methods above generated the following results: DDM: N23.80; DFE: N39.17, ME: N30.28 and PER: N33.78.

Investment Analysis

Analysis of the investment ratio between 2003 and 2007 shows that Afribank’s earnings per share increased from N0.45k to N1.02k translating to a CAGR of 22.59%. Dividend per share increased from N0.15k in 2003 to N0.30k in 2007 translating to a CAGR of 18.92%.

The bank did not pay dividends both in 2005 and 2006 as a result of the restructuring costs which it had to undertake in 2005 to position it to efficiency and the goodwill in the account of the bank in 2006.

Earnings yield increased from 6.45% in 2003 to 8.84% in 2007 while the dividend yield also increased marginally to 2.61% from 2.15% during the same period. In a similar development, dividend cover improved marginally to 3.39x from 3.00x. The average P/E ratio for the financial year ended 2006 and 2007 is 13.52x while the average dividend pay-out for the period between 2003 and 2007 is 30.78%.

The share price appreciated by 64.90% from N6.98 to N11.51 translating to a CAGR of 13.32% while the net asset per share increased from N3.34 to N6.13 which is a CAGR of 16.37%. Meanwhile, the shares being offered will qualify for any dividend or bonus that may be declared for the year ending 31st March, 2008. Investment in Afribank shares in the last seven years has proven to be profitable in terms of capital appreciation, dividend and bonuses earned.

Investment Case Study

An investment of N100,000 in Afribank stock on 02 January, 2001 was worth N709,498 as at 26 October, 2007 if the dividends accrued to the investment have not been invested in an interest bearing asset. Our analysis shows that 1 unit of Afribank stock closed at N10.10 on the first trading day in the year 2001.

If the cost of transaction is deducted from the principal of N100,000, the amount would have purchased 9,509 units of Afribank shares in 2001 which as at the date of this report have increased by 140% to 22,821 as a result of bonus issues.

The accumulated total dividend earned less 10% withholding tax stood at N13,692. The value of the investment based on the market price of N30.49 is N709,498 with a total profit of N609,498 thus returning 609% over the period. This translates to a CAGR in return of 38.62%.

Fundamental Analysis

Return on Common Equity: The ROE for Afribank Bank Plc based on the most recent fiscal year’s financial statements is 16.5%, which is above the industry average of 15%. The current year’s ROE represents an improvement of 80.1% compared to 9.02%, the ROE for the prior year.

Cash Flow: A review of the most recent three (3) financial statements indicates a bank with improving operating and free cash flow position since the FYE March 2005. The operating cash flow improved from N4.1 billion in FY 2005 to N5.4 billion in FY 2006, and to N9.4 billion in FY 2006.

Financial Ratios: Reviewing the financial statements for the most FYE for most banks in Nigeria, a comparative analysis of the relevant ratios for Afribank against its peers indicates that the bank performed relatively well. Afribank performed at, or above the industry average after adjusting for bank’s with extreme ratios and banks that have not reported financial figures since 2005.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

A review of the daily price movement of Afribank’s stock from November 4, 2004 through August 17, 2007 reveals a gain of N30.26k or 456% during this period.

However, a significant portion of the gains occurred after the lifting of the 9.6 months technical suspension in July 2007 by the NSE. For example, from July 11, 2007 through August 17, 2007, the stock gained N25.38k, or 220.5% based on the pre-adjusted 1 for 5 bonus price of N36.89.

Analysis revealed that N1m investment in Afribank stock in January 2006 would have generated N2.7 million, or 275%.

VALUATION

It would be appropriate to adopt the approach taken by First Securities Discount House (FSDH) to arrive at a fair value for Afribank Plc by using four (4) valuation metrics which are: Dividend Discount Model (DDM), Discounted Future Earnings (DFE), Maintainable Earnings (ME) and Price to Earnings Relative (PER) valuation methods.

In this valuation approach, the three-year dividend projection and the forecast PAT of the bank for the years ending 2008, 2009 and 2010.

The five (5)-year historical PATs of the bank for the years ended 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 is factored in. Thereafter, exceptional items paid in 2005 and 2007 are adjusted for. A beta value of 0.74 derived from the 5-year historical share price, a risk free rate of 9.25% which is the coupon rate on the 7-year bond issued by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) in the month of September 2007 and a risk premium of 8% are used to confirm the analysis.

The parameters generates a cost of capital of 15.17 % (the discount rate used) applying the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). A growth rate into perpetuity of 11% was used. The inflation rate as recorded by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) for the end of the financial year of the bank is used to bring the historical PAT’s to current value. To ensure that all factors were properly accounted for, appropriate weights for the values used were applied in such a way that higher weight were assigned to the recent values.

Further, the average P/E ratio of 30.69x which is the average for the banking industry as at 18th October, 2007 was used after removing three banks, two with the highest P/E ratio and one bank with the lowest P/E ratio. The PE ratio of 30.69x, though appearing high is justified based on the thinking that the earnings growth potential of the banking industry which we consider in the region of 35% justifies the current high P/E ratio.

This, and in order to arrive at the value of each share we used 5,108,433,332 (excluding the bonus shares of 1 for 5 shares which were in issue as at 31st March, 2007) and 10,130,118,000 Ordinary Shares which would be in issue in 2010 after the Public Offer.

The values per ordinary share of Afribank, using the valuation methods above generated the following results: DDM: N23.80; DFE: N39.17, ME: N30.28 and PER: N33.78.

Taking a simple average of the three valuation results we arrived at N31.76 which is our fair value of each ordinary share of Afribank. The Offer price at N25.00 per share of the bank is therefore issued at a discount of 27.04% to our fair value of N31.76.

The investor should be able to find enough justification for a BUY decision on the stock at the current Offer price.

Afribank Nigeria Plc has a lot riding on the market forecast it has given to date but the consoling factor here is the believability of its forecast in the past for which it has consistently met.

This is one way to make informed judgement which as a rule, applies across board.

CONCLUSION:

The shares of Afribank Plc, priced at N25 for the secondary offering represents a discount of N5.49k, or 18% from its closing price of N30.49k. Technically, the price movement prior to the technical suspension indicates a very strong demand for the stock by investors and indicates that the uptrend is likely to continue.

You can put it on yousendit or megaupload and post link for downloading.
www.yousendit.com
www.megaupload.com
Alternatively can also post it on one of my website servers

yodiyokun:
@all,

Remember That I work oo and in the last 4 hours I have been away from this page simply because I get to commute home --pick my kids - and tuck them in.

@Pumpings spreadsheet is on page 187 of this thread - no one should ask for it again. do a search.

Now for the long awaited spreadsheet.

Remember, there is no BUY or sell info. It is just a repository of historical information - To gain fom it, it needs to be reviewed and anaylzed.


Thanks Wanaj0 for sharing this - It is highly appreciated.


P.S I am modifying this post because Yawa has gassed.

Seun placed a limit of 200kb per file attachment. The file is 3.5MB even after zipping it , I could only reduce it to 700kb. So if anyone has a way of working round it let me know.

However I no fit send email to everybody, thats no feasible so lets look for a solution.

I agree, had me converting that to $$ like shuoooo! Windywendy I want to be like u when I grow up

easimoni:
As my peeps say; "when you are big, you are BIG"

Oga wanajo abeg I just emailed you, pls can u send me a copy too?

FatherOF2:
NSE can be so predictable sometimes,short term traders will not allow intercontinental exceed 25% plus.An expected drop today.
@ololufemi
Oceanic and UBA now well within striking distance.
They have made consistent daily drops since Tuesday (thats one of my weekly signals).
Oceanic is just at about close to its resistance level.I would advice a buy for both tomorrow.
I expect a drop tomorrow that's why you can buy tomorrow so you can both be positioned and be getting it at a low price.
If UBA drops to N48.80,you may not get it cheaper. The bank will intervene and i expect a rally from nextweek.
N48.80 is a good price which when you add 25% should lift it to its forecasted price of N61-N62.
Tomorrow is my buy day also cause i sold my intercontinental yesterday @33.05 to add another 25% to it within the next two weeks.

The NSE is one interesting place, despite the UBA report release, price still drops Not complaining though, issued order to buy

Newsflash regarding Diamond getting loan from IFC!!! Lets hang on tight!


http://odili.net/news/source/2007/nov/27/410.html

Diamond Bank Plc has formed a partnership with the International Finance Corporation, a member of the World Bank Group, to assist smaller businesses in Africa.



advertisement

The bank explained on Monday that the deal was in line with its tradition of playing a leading role in engineering the growth in the micro, small and medium scale businesses in the country.

According to the deal, IFC will provide a $20m loan to Diamond Bank under a programme that boosts lending to smaller businesses across Sub-Saharan Africa by investing in and providing advisory services to local banks.

Details of the agreement indicated that the loans will be drawn from a finance facility of up to $200m that has been approved by IFC’s board for the entire program.

The Group Managing Director, Diamond Bank, Mr. Emeka Onwuka, said in a statement on Monday that “expanding lending to micro, small and medium enterprises is an important part of Diamond Bank’s growth strategy and it is a key driver of its retail banking initiative.

He said that working with IFC will enable the bank to better reach smaller businesses, which contribute substantially to Nigeria’s economy”.

According to the statement, Diamond Bank had similarly partnered with with Shell Petroleum Development Company and GroFin of South Africa to float a $30m fund branded Aspire Nigeria to serve as a catalyst for the development and growth of Nigerian Small and Medium Enterprises.

The fund, according to the bank, is expected to enhance the operations of indigenous small and medium enterprises through the provision of the much needed business development assistance and appropriate finance.

The bank said the fund demonstrated the interests of the partners in contributing to the development of SMEs as a means of enhancing wealth creation in the economy

According to the statement, IFC is currently considering 20 banks in 17 African countries in the first round of the initiative.

Each investment will be coupled with an extensive package of advisory services from consulting companies that IFC has selected based on their expertise in promoting lending to smaller firms.

Diamond Bank is said to be the third institution to work with IFC under the program, following Burkina Faso’s Banque Agricole et Commerciale du Burkina and Malawi’s NBS Bank.

IFC is expected to provide two years of advisory services package to Diamond Bank, which will focus on expanding the bank’s range of loan products, raising its credit risk management practices and helping it reach a larger number of micro, small and medium businesses.

It was gathered that the advisory services will be delivered by the Coffey International Development and Genesis Analytics Limited, consulting companies based in the United Kingdom and South Africa, respectively.

“The consortium has more than 20 years experience in assisting banks to deliver innovative finance solutions in Africa, Europe and Asia,” the statement said.

Capital Oil in the news

http://www.champion-newspapers.com/daily%20champion%20files/infotel%20&%20energy/article_15.htm



Infotel & Energy

Capital oil invests N2b in new vessels

Capital Oil and Gas Industries Limited has invested $18 million (about N2.28 billion) for the purchase of four vessels. This is to enhance the transportation of petroleum products from refineries belonging to the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and reputable refineries in foreign countries.

Mr. Ifeanyi Ubah, managing director, Capital Oil Industries Limited explained that investment in the new vessels is part of the company’s plans to eliminate problems of congestion of vessels at the existing terminal of Ibru jetty and improve its leading roles in the downstream sector of the Nigerian oil and gas industry.

He noted that the company made the investment to improve the availability of petroleum products through its jetty and tank farm located at Ibafon in Lagos. "This is the first time that a Nigerian firm would acquire four vessels at a time mainly for fuel transportation regardless of challenges in the industry", he said.

Ubah explained during a prayer session in Lagos last weekend that the company is also investing in the expansion of its tank farm and jetty slated for commissioning this week to accommodate more vessels so as to fast-track the discharge of petroleum products and lifting by trucks to various locations in the country.

This, he said is capable of storing 168,000 metric tonnes (MT) of petroleum products on completion of the construction and make the company the biggest indigenous operator in the downstream sector. On completion of the new jetty, it will be capable to accommodate four vessels of 30,000 (MT) to discharge petroleum products for the tank farm.

"We have actively participated in fuel importation since the commissioning of our ultra modern mega fuel depot in March this year despite volatility in the international prices of refined products. We want to remain focused servicing our customers and maintain steady growth and improve standard of living of our workers. We are placing a lot of orders for importation of petroleum products especially diesel from Europe and facilities for the jetty", he noted.

He added that the company is also negotiating with the Lagos State government for the construction of the biggest private truck park. This, according to him is part of the company’s corporate social responsibility to bring an end to long traffic along the Mile Two- Oshodi expressway.

"The park is designed to accommodate 600 trucks from various companies to improve traffic flow and improve economic activities in Lagos State", he explained.

The company had invested N5 billion in the construction of an ultra-modern fuel tank farm at Ibafon in Lagos State. The facility commissioned early this year is designed to store 46,000 metric tones (MT) of premium motor spirit (PMS), automotive gas oil (AGO) and dual purpose kerosene (DPK).

UNIC & Nigerian-German connection

Could it be that they both are doing well due to their partnership, where UNIC is doing well because of NGC's success. I'm an avid reader of William O'Neil's book on How to make money in stocks, and he mentions the "Cousin stock Theory", where if a company is doing well, to research it well, you might find a supplier company or cousin stock to also profit from.
I know there are a couple of companies like that which have been mentioned on here.

aktopgun:
for costain owners and the house in general, what say u all on this?

Costain West Africa Plc, on Friday announced a growth of 93 per cent in net profit for its half year ended September 30, 2007, even as the company intensified plans to revive its furniture and joinery subsidiary as part of the strategic move to broaden its revenue base and deliver returns to shareholders.

The construction firm announced a turnover of N1.5bn, up from N1.46bn, while net profit rose by 93 per cent from N67.64m in 2006 to N130.55m in 2007. Costain bounced back into profitability in 2006 after many years of losses.

The Managing Director of the company, Mr. Philip Wharton, has said that the revival of its furnishing business was central to the company’s growth plan for the next five years.

According to him, the planned injection of funds will be a boost in revamping the furnishing subsidiary, acquire new plant and equipment that will enhance the operational efficiency and service delivery of the group.

“We are in the process of getting final approvals to raise fresh funds from the capital market. Part of our growth and development plan in the next two to three years will be to resuscitate our furniture and joinery subsidiary. The subsidiary will be equipped with the latest technology to produce world-class furniture for the Nigerian and West African markets,” he said.

This is great news, though I wasnt too happy tying down a big part of my portfolio for long, its good to see #s, the demand will be high post TS

Yes I have, abeg search my posts (under my profile), and you'll see where I've talked about them at length
I've used them since Sep, and currently have 2 other friends using them, we are all in the US. The NRN US rep is extremely great, Temitope, and I'm sure the UK one must be. I love that its a 1 stop shop, esp if you dont have a bank acct, cause u get to open up 1 and when u send money to purchase shares, u are sending it to your own bank acct.
It takes about 2 business days to buy/sell, and I deal with them by email, online portal should be available pretty soon. Matter of fact the rep just sent me an invoice by email an hr ago for my stock sales/purchases from wed-fri.

bigjay01:
Hi Nairalanders

Any one has any experince with UBA stockbrokers? I am currently resident outside Naija and am about signing with them using their Non-Resident-Nigerian accounts.

Alternatively does anyone know of any better Stockbrokers better suited for people like me.

All you guys currently outside Naija please help a brother out. My current stockbroker is dealing with me seriously and I am about to tell him where to go.

Waiting ohhhh

and Nigerian German is now at N26.61

@EMMAACHILE, so Livestocks just mght be Good long term for prob maybe 09 then?

nzemillion:
Wanajo, Easimoni, Pumping 777, Temmie 10, i´m still waiting 4 you guys reply, as regards to how can i collect my First bank po´s refund money, Please let some body help me,

They will be mailing cheques back, unless u would rather not get it at the address u have on the form, in which case u'll have to contact Meristem registrars who are the registrars for the offer.

wanaj0:
While not trying to spoil the party, please be careful about NGC. They tend to make more money in the first half of the year than in the second half. Their oil services business is small but has a big margin. Unfortunately, the Niger Delta crisis is affecting them.

I think they are currently fairly valued and if it gets to 28.00, it will be time to say thank you and bye bye. June last year it was about 4.00. August this year it was about 12.00. It use to have a PE of about 4.00!!!! The market is just coming to terms with the value of the company. The company owns substantial stake in UNIC insurance so should benefit from the insurance boom.

Will be surprised if they don't declare a banus this year. It is long overdue. A 3 for 1 will not be out of place!!!! (well UNIC owned by the same set of people did something similar some years ago).

Pumping, will not say NGC is volatile. Not with the limited liquidity.

Thanks much for the input, I actually had talked myself into placing an order to sell at least 50% Monday a few hrs ago. A bonus would be rather tempting If it does get to N28, I'm selling because my initial exit price was N27 lol
I'll re-evaluate based on what happens monday, and if so issue sale order in the afternoon, def good profit short term thats for sure esp for those who got in at N12, or even folks like me who got in at N16

I actually found out about Nig-German from here in Sep, and did research before going in late Oct, it was about 20% of my small portfolio, actually wanted it to be 25%, but took away funds I had allocated for it unfortunately.

They havent given any bonuses since, which is great for me, neither have they come out seeking funds through POs
They are serously undervalued, even though they are listed under chemical paints, their interests in oil and gas is huge, and its their top 2 area alongside pharmaceuticals for largest profits. I love their partnership with the big dogs like pfizer with whom they produce the drug Benylin and other stuff.

I think they limit the amount of shares available too which helps keep the price unaffected even during a bear market. Chief Shonekan holds a large amt.
I like the management, I like Alhaji Idris the Emir of Zaria being the chairman given his connections.
NGC also are invested in UNIC Insurance

This is their report from 2005
http://www.ngcplc.com/financials/NGCPLC_Annual_Report_2005.pdf

Dec 31
Yup I dont see it going down, it'll prob just be constant at whatever price it settles at and then take off again in Jan.

aktopgun:
i will go for it once the bull frenzy cools , around christmas probably. Just hope it will be more affordable then.

anyone know when the year end for Nig german cchemicals is?

I got in at N16.7 late Oct which was still higher than the N12 folks got in with in Aug, and its gained 50% since I got mine. Some might see it as being high now but I am looking at adding a little bit more for the long term based on where I see them going, their graph appears to me to be a high tight flag, I think the price will correct sideways (which is when I'll buy more), if so the best is yet to come. I dont see it going again below N20.
The company is great, they are jack of all trades, in healthcare, oil & gas, chemicals,

aktopgun:
fellas,
i see Nigeria german chemical is knocking up seriuos dosh on the exchange in the last 11 days
have to admit i turned a deaf ear to all the noise about them

they are 1 0f 2 in their sector as far as i see and therefore won't have much competition really.
they do have sustained profitability from my research and have good variables

i wonder if its too late to get on this candy train , FOR THE LONG TERM OF COURSE.

WHAT SAY You FELLAS?

NGC continues to make its climb, another 4.96% gain, wanajo your N28 go soon reach oooooh I've both short term and long term intentions with this stock.
Cornerstone is up 4.55%, great I hope my broker sold mine today. Definitely one to watch out for in the next few mths.

yeah I completely agree, folks find it hard enough to trust their own parents and money let alone any stranger.
I do see myself starting an investment club but not with anyone, would like to keep it small as possible, there are some of my friends who invest that hae diff risk profile than I do, it'd be very hard for us both to agree on who to invest in.

Other option would be for those who live in places like the US, start up a small business, and then take out a business loan. Model your company more like that, investing in emerging markets. There are commercial loans available for even up to $1mil with as low a deposit of $20k, thats the route I'll most likely take.

tonyjon:
I like this one -stop -shop idea. How does your CSCS NUMBER look like when you registered with your present broker?. Is it numeric or alphanumeric and do they charge you money when you buy IPO/PO through them?. Let me know in your response.

Peace.

My CSCS # is numeric, the CHN number is alphanumeric. I havent bought POs through them just yet, buy commission % is 2.6, sell % s 2.3
plus u can get home mortgage loans from USD $40,000-350,000
I also like how I can send money to my bank acct anytime which is great if I want to write checks in nigeria or if I'm traveling there, I can send ahead and then go to any UBA branch office and withdraw.
If I want to buy now, and all my capital market money is tied up, I send the money thru ubaremit to my current/checkings acct, once it gets there, i just issue a transfer mandate for them to transfer it to my capital market acct, and also send a purchase mandate. That process till they buy shares is about 2 business days. I can give u the email address of their US rep, not sure if he's the one doing Canada, but he can direct u further.

NGC keeps climbing, N24.15 today!!

While other insurance stocks arent faring well, Cornerstone is climbing, now N4.17. Had a little in my portfolio and was really surprised, asked broker to sell it today, so he might get that done tomorrow, hope it might still be headed up even then.

1st Bank is also climbing, it'll be interesting to see once PO shares are released electronically.

I use UBA stockbrokers through their Non Resident Nigerian Program (UBA NRN), its def a good option if u live in the US, UK or Canada. I get very prompt responses to my email within mins and no more than 1 business day, matter of fact just got one to confirm that they received a request to purchase shares that I sent barely an hr ago.
Everything is accounted for, plus I like the fact thats its a 1 stop shop, bank acct and capital market. Plus I've access to other options like home mortgage loans and all that comes with the NRN program, takes me 2 days to send money to my bank acct using ubaremit, cheaper than western union plus it goes to my acct and not someone else's central acct.
Online portal isnt functional but should be in a few mths, e-banking is available, now i make transactions by issuing purchase/sell mandates to the UBA-US rep who is extremely efficient. 2 business days to buy/sell unless the stock is unavailable or very hard to get. Being a huge bank and because of the importance of the NRN section, they bend over backwards. I've canceled sell orders successfully as long as I do it within 1 business day.
Minimum to start is N250k

Keph:
Fellow nairalanders,

I am about changing my stockbroker due to the poor communication and cheer inefficiency they have demonstrated with trading orders.I have a shortlist of 3 brokers that I am interested in.They are Afrinvest WA,UBA Stockbrokers and Greenwich Trust.
If you are with any of these 3 kindly let me know how they have dealt with you.Are you satisfied with them in terms of their honesty,communication,speed of executing orders,verification of share certificates and internet services?Would you recommend them as an efficient brokerage firm?
Please kindly provide these information if you have it as I don't want to go into the same same situation as I have been.

Kind regards,

Keph

bought diamond last week, my broker should get Access by tomorrow, and maybe more diamond by friday (its already gone N1 more than my previous purchase price)
I bought 1st bank's PO, and Costain is my #1 stock, pretty heavy in my portfolio already, I might sell some post TS but thats because I'll buy during the PO. I'm hoping the profit I make from the post TS run will be enough to cover what I got in the PO.
I had MBenefits which I had broker sell, and selling my Cornerstone

toyibanj:
@Naijadr
Are you still buying your portfolio stocks at today's prices or have bought already.

NGC is prob one of the best out there right now, glad to see folks holding onto it. I wish I had bought more, I like the fact that they are a jack of all trades
end of the year is Dec, can't wait to see reports. Unless something crazy happens, I'll keep it
Already in with Diamond, but had planned to add onto it and Access
My portfolio going into 2008 will be COSTAIN(TS), Nig-Ger, Access, Diamond, 1st Bank

stanchuks:
are u saying its not right to exit now?

Naah just saying that based on my exit price that I set when I bought it at end of Oct. You purchased it at a much better price than I did, so you made the smart choice.
there's a huge demand, but many are not selling, folks are waiting till after results are released in Dec (plus the dividends and bonus hungry hopefuls) which is also helping the stock price. At this rate I'll be issuing a sell order by mid next week anyway