₦airaland Forum

harrisoft:
@ all need your comments please

When I bought crusader in Nov last yr I had 9-12months in mind, but it gained 30% within a month I couldn’t resist but too my profit (sold every thing). Bought Oceanic within the month another 26% and I was out, put the money in Diamond planning a 12-18months exit but just exited with 26% again.

My problem is am I greedy or is this normal?

I love to be a long timer, but I seem to be enjoying fatherof2 yo yo (giving your money momentum). Within this two months (Nov9 to Jan ) my N500 capital has grown to about N1.2m  (injected N80k Dec). Putting everything in FBN till August 2008. (if Fatherof2 principle allow me) .

@Fatherof2 you don spoil me. Please spoil me some more tell us more principle.

@Oga Wanaj0, thank you Sir. I will be waiting.

My own assessment is that you are NOT greedy at all. Just smart.

Most times, sudden mega appreciation is only temporary. If you look at the market this week, a lot of folks drinking bear over their spreadsheet profits will be looking at different figures by now.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1831049#msg1831049 date=1199798361]@ barge, if truly this is a forum where divergent opinion is accepted, then you should have accepted mine, and not select my comments for special castigation as if I was the only person against the write up. Others earlier posted things to negate that bank thrashing but you said nothing, abi you just wan silence one ‘small’ voice?

There was nothing personal about what I said, I like to be precise in my comments, hence the direct reply instead of dancing round the point. Even more confusing is saying you cannot accept to lose one kobo and still said you will take calculated risks and don’t fret when you lose?

Please educate us about how you can take risks and not think of losses[/quote]Let's cool tempers. I'm sure there is no offence meant.

@invicible - No mind barge. The man dey jealous of your name and wants to make sure you are "visible"

Talking of names. I have seen how you have been using the phrase "No Shaking". I hope you know say somebody don patent am for this forum (No_Shaking). I no dey for lawsuit o Just kidding sha.

crazyT:
@ Pumping777


I guess you are so attached to these banks stocks (and all the goodies that comes with it) that you fail to trash the real question, how do the banks come by these profits when other sectors are not doing well? Nigerian economy did not measure up to what is happening in the banking sectors. Or are they listed on another planet than NSE?

You answered the question yourself. These are different industries. Every industry has it's own time of growth and this can be repeated. Banking will not grow at these rate forever. Things will cool.

Let us now look at it critically. Do you think the banks have had the highest rate of growth in Nigeria in the last couple of years It's all about the service industries. They are growing at an astronomical rate. I can name at least 5 non-banking companies that have outgrown the banks in terms of YOY PAT so what is this fuss about?? What does one expect after condensing all the banks in Nigeria to 25

Some banks are still struggling you know. It is not so easy to cook the books on top of nothing. UBA is paying dividents of N1.20 for every stock and Oceanic is paying N1.02. No be yam now.

I know you want to convince me to sell my UBA to you but I no go gree

Make you quick buy own before all these investors from Europe and Yankee go buy everything finish and list UBAN on NYSE

crazyT:
Secrets behind banks’ huge profits


I just ran into this story today and I think of sharing it with you all especially peeps that are crazy about bank shares, I guess someone on this thread has asked this question before? How do the banks come by these profits when other sectors are not doing well?

Guys make una shine una eyes o


Suddenly, we are back to the era of stupendous figures. If key performance indicators are not doubling or tripling, it is quadrupling. And just as one bank is rolling out astounding figures for one period, another is announcing some out-of-the-world results for the same or other periods. And these are usually heralded by a blitz of advertisements to properly situate and highlight the waltz up the performance chain.

The big question: How do the banks come by these profits when other sectors are not doing well? The surprising thing is that you hardly see much activity in some of these banks reeling out these mind-boggling figures. Where then lies their secret?
here under is the link: http://odili.net/news/source/2008/jan/6/428.html

I don't know what Nigerian banks have done to anyone. Everybody is searching for skeletons. It is impossible for our big banks to post N30B a year. I've heard so many versions of this story that I'm not even keen to read anymore.

Nigeria will always have banks. This is a fact that can never change. If anyone thinks that First Bank or UBA or Zenith of today is the same banks they were 3 years ago, then there is more eye shining required. These banks have changed levels.

Figure juggling is everywhere in banking and outside banking wether in Nigeria or elsewhere. If there is such a serious problem in banking, please our Financial Auditors should own up. The doubting Thomases will continue to pile up until these same banks start declaring N100B PAT. We have not seen anything yet.

Check out the figures for banks in SA. How much are our banks making? With a population of over 140M that is seriously under-banked and an emerging class?

bigjay01:
@

whats so interesting about Dunlop with an RSI₁₄ well over 70. and crippling (albeit renegotiated) interest payment. am i missing something

RSI is only one indicator and it is for technical trading anyway. Fundamental analysis is another of looking at things. Whatever the RSI of UBA is right now, the price is heading north tomorrow. This is based on strong fundamentals.

grabdaloot:
I am missing something here. How can dunlop be on strong bid according to the daily stock position and still end up on the losers?? Can someone please help explain this one to me because I never see am before

From what I understand the closing price depends on the last trade. There could be high bids on the floor but at prices below this closing price. Sometimes I wonder if some folks can use this to manipulate the market.

Of course if it is a serious bid, a higher price may be offered tomorrow but then if the bidder does not value the stock at a higher price, the low bid is maintained in case prices drop tomorrow.

From my observation, the fact that a stock closed on high net bid today does not mean it will rise in price tomorrow or vice versa. Remember that new bids and offers will be introduced into the mix on the next trading day especially if the closing price today becomes favourable to buyers or sellers.

kpineo:
i just noticed that. i checked the other attached figures and they check out fine. i will like to assume someone made a mistake with the date,

Yes, I think it is a mistake. The one for 4th of Janauary is on the website and it is different from this one.

Thanks!!

NBA:
I just started receiving these -

Thanks for this. Between you and Kpineo if you get the report for today, please share before the market opens tomorrow.

yodiyokun:
I placed an order for UBA since like 3 weeks ago -- and i have been constantly doing that now, no word oo.

O ti sumi

That one is gross broker incompetence unless you were bidding below the closing price in the hope of buying at a "discount".

Pele. You should vex for them well well. A lot of money was made in the last 3 weeks.

shigidi:
omo insurance die today oooo. i hope i can sell my UNIC tomorrow at a reasonable price. will go back to it later.
i hope t0 get more UBA tomorrow,
@ YODIYOKUN, ps have u received your UBA CERTIFICATE. PLS HOLLA .

Two uphill tasks.

This will be a true test for your broker. If they can sell UNIC for you tomorrow at a reasonalbe price and get you UBA at any price, they have passed the acid test ;

shigidi:
@ easimoni, do you think this unity bank is any good. im not sure i want to go in there

Unity is not any good based on info we have right now but if they are doing PO in March there is money to be made. I expect a solid interimi result to be posted to entice prospective investors.

Woeful result from Evans Medical.

EVANS MEDICAL PLC
UNAUDITED Q-3 RESULTS FOR THE PERIOD ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2007
PERIOD 2007 2006 ABSOLUTE CHANGE %CHANGE
TURNOVER (N'b) 2.47 2.37 0.10 4.3%
PBT (N'm) -13.58 206.55 -220.128 -106.6%
TAXATION (N'm) nil 66.10 66.1 100.0%
PAT (N'm) -13.58 140.46 -154.031 -109.7%
Net Profit Margin -5.49% 5.93%

FatherOF2:
hahaha,
how else do you want the money to be made if people no chase.
Its a normal human behaviour now?.

Yes o. It is because of people that run after the stocks that those that think ahead can make a kill. Make them dey chase jare.

It is called "after-the-fact syndrome".

There is one thing that never ceases to amaze me. This is the fact that people get interested in a stock when everyone else is chasing the stock.

When the price is falling, such folks think there is a problem with the stock. Someone posted last week that if UBA falls again this week he/she is going to hold back buying the stock.

Buy your stocks when no one is interested and sell when everyone is. My favourite quote from Warren Buffett. Baba ke.

"Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well."  

aktopgun:
@pumping

fifty bucks says i beat u to UBA      

Beat me ke?? I don dey buy my UBA since December. Already over 10% of my portfolio. I asked for more units today but no confirmation yet. You fit beat me to that one sha  

easimoni:
Anyone notice Deap drop today on large volumes? I hope this is the start of a significant retracement. Consult Ikeja Hotels chart for an analogue.

I will not miss that your simple but very effective technique this time around

upward:
Hello Oga Pumping,
I presume you must be busy now crunching figures, it is well. I dey greet-o. Please I sent you an IM.

Sir, today is my first day back at work this year after 3 weeks break so time is quite tight. I must get round to NSE stuff sha.

with that result posted by UBA we are looking at a projected PE of around 15.3. Things don't get any better for investors. This is a hot stock for me right now.

Oceanic's forward PE is now 22.07 which is also good but UBA is the bomb for me.

I beg o. Is this UBA result for real

Favour08:
@PUMPING007
Please explain how you use PEG to value stocks. Thanks

Chei!!! 007 ke. I don become James Bond be that.

See info on PEG ratio here.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp

hhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PEG_ratio

grabdaloot:
@ pumping and aktopgun

the bottomline I would guess is what is your objective for being in the market if it is investment then you could compare "apples to apples" but for me and now my objective is capital gain. Most of the price movement in 2007 was the market moving up firms to where they should be based on their PE (UPL, LONGMAN, AGLEVENT (now you can see that their PEs' at the turn of last year were all below 10)  the banks and insurance companies just moved because of their growth potential) . the dividend hunters also favour PE comparison across sectors. Assuming you had 100k to 'invest', would you buy a stock that is N50 whose dividend is N1 or would you buy one that is N3 but dividend is 15k The market reacted to this kind of situation a lot last year and will still do so this year. If you had compared to the PE of the conglomerates amongst themselves which one would you have bought then?  I am not trying to say that PE shouldn't be compared amongst a sector but to me that is purely for long term investors. If you are looking for capital gain (best growth prospect for your money) then you should go across the sector to see which company has the lowest PE. I've used this method for sometime and it hasn't failed me (>1000% ROI in 2006/7). I would have loved to give some examples of stocks to watch out for but since I have not finished taking my position in some of them, I am to scared to mention them here. But in due time I will. By and large I still feel that PEG should be factored when the PE is above 20-25 to know if the stock is still a good buy

Fundamental analysis is not the way for short term trading which I believe is your strategy. The market can be stubborn and takes it's time in raising the price of the stock to it's fair value.

So question.  Do you think it will make a good arguement to say that you are better off buying Ikeja Hotels that is growing at 25% annually at todays's price than to buy CILeasing which is growing at 200% annually because it has a PE that is less than half of CILeasing?

If you want to make the playing field more level across industries, like you suggested, PEG will be very helpful.

grabdaloot:
@AKtopgun

Nice of you to dedicate some time to educate others with your wealth of knowledge but I'd beg to differ on one of your philosophies. The idea that a company's PE ratio should only be compared to companies in that same sector is fast becoming void because when I invest money in the petroleum sector, that money is not different from that invested in the banking sector so if the average PE of the banking sector is 30 and that of the petroleum sector is 15, I'd rather put my money in the petroleum sector. Remeber the age old saying that the market discounts everything. so eventually the market will move up the firm with a PE of 15 to its right price. Companies have board meetings at the end of every financial year to determine what %age of PAT should be paid out as dividend. Most often that not, that percentage is a constant for most firms and only when there is tremendous growth in value of its stock will they decide to do a stock split popularly known as bonus in Nigeria and misused by companies that have fallen short in their business to appease investors. Rather what I feel is that presently the PE ratio of most sectors incorporates the growth rate associated with that sector. That is why most insurance firms have PE's in the 60 and above range. Like wise a whole market and that is why the avg PE of the NSE is now about 35 as agianst the norm of 20 suggested by the gurus of the world market as the avg for most markets. I think the PEG; price earnings growth ratio is what we are currently operating with in Nigeria without knowing it.
Your tots are welcom

I have to disagree with you here. The reason why you should only compare companies in the same sector is that forward PEs mean nothing if you don't factor in the potential growth rate of the company/industry. It will interest you to know that Dangote Flour and Flour Mills are trading at PEs about half that of the banks. Reason is that the rate of growth of these companies is nowhere near the banks currently.

So you can see the possibility of a PE of 15/17 in the food industry holding around the same value as a PE of 20/25 in the banking industry.

[quote author=Mr. Risky link=topic=31554.msg1825729#msg1825729 date=1199650594]Kudos for the tutorial. On PE ratios, may I kindly ask: Which is more prudent to use, the TRAILING PE or the PROJECTED PE? For a growth stock like C & I Leasing a friend is even ready to buy at N10- N12 today considering what he believes are the potentials of the company. And yet he is looking at a 24 month from now. Don't you think he will be proved right sometime soon? And also many I see are using 30 as standard PE for the insurance industry considering also the new WIND that is blowing within that sector. What is safe? Trailing PE or Projected PE?
Oya, we are listening. Thanks[/quote]Projected PE is more useful. There can be surprises if projections are not met, but that is a different kettle of fish.

If an insurance stock has a Trailing PE of 40 right now, but you can project a PE of 10 in a year's time, then it still makes a good buy. Comparing the trailing PE with the projected PE also gives a picture of the expected growth rate of the company.

koksieboy:
Either Windows Defender and Avast antivirus should do the trick and both are free.

Mcafee, Spyware Doctor and Windows Defender did not detect any Trojan or virus in the downloaded files (after extraction) or during the installation.

Can you confirm the name and extension of the file(s) you detected?

Thanks.

pumping777:
I deeply concur.

Like I said in a recent post, the strength of this thread is in being able to make what other folks bring here, together with what you bring and make it your own.

No system is foolproof and everything keeps evolving.

Gudchoice:
Posted by: kevyngbash

@ Aktopgun - Hope you are still enjoying fatherhood. It has its ups and downs (sleepless nights/disrupted sleep)

I'm quite inclined to agree with you, but only to a certain degree. There's much more to learn beyond ratios and "fundamentals", but who's willing to share their wealth of knowledge? Everyone shares ratios, but as I understand there much more to learn beyond this, especially in the NSE. How do you know a stock is overvalued in comparison with its peers? How do you know, without been told that there a certain times to buy and sell a stock (many thanks to FatherOf2 for sharing of Thursdays and Fridays, and many other who contribute selflessly)? How do you as a newbie or jjc know anything substantial about the board of any company, to know that the profit/turnover and success depends on this management team? Many things we all read about foreign markets is not exactly applicable to the NSE, but somewhat adaptable. Who is willing teach how to adapt? Many amongst us have software we have been using before now that TA (technical analysis) has become the in thing. Are you willing to share the name of such software (thanks to everyone that has helped make using excel a lot easier and to those that suggested the use of Aptistock and Metastock).

I have to disagree with you here. If you have really taken the discussions on this thread to heart and expanded your knowledge along these lines, I don't see a question above that you cannot answer yourself. At least you can form an opinion and exchange ideas further with folks on this forum and then take a final stand.

Everyone here was a newbie at some point and I don't think folks here went to university or college to go and learn stock trading. You can learn. Just believe in yourself.

Just browsing the thread to pick out names of stocks others have picked without doing any analysis yourself, is one sure way of learning absolutely nothing.

aktopgun:
there is a wealth of knowledge already divulged and still waiting to be divulged on this thread but we won't get it if we don't ask for it by asking questions to enrich our arsenal(did i just add that useless team's name in my post) (MAN. You 4 LIFE!!, CHAMPIONS BABY)

The learning continues. happy investing

I for fear as I see that name ke!!! I beg I owe Tobechukwu better autographed soccer boots from "Rooonaildo", MAN. YOU 4 EVER!!!

aktopgun:
it has been so interesting reading the threads for the last 2-3 weeks, really eye opening and very scary!
i for one am really worried that the ethos behind beginning to invest in the first place is being played down and lost, to be replaced by discipleship, (bordering on sychophancy). I thought we were trying to bring heads together to teach each other how to fish. its alright if you ask questions because thats the only way u learn but some the questions are downright scary, like which stocks would you recommend for tomorrow, or next week or the next 4 weeks etc.
fellas, any investment takes time to develop and grow. for individual investors who have limited funds (i'm sure very few people on this thread are billionaires), the best approach is still to choose good companies to invest in. if u make an investment and then can't sleep at night becausse your broker couldnt sell on friday nko? Blood pressure tablets, here i come time be that o!!. How many of the new brothers and sisters on this forum have even learnt how exactly their brothers and sisters who have been investing for long in the NSE evaluate a stock?
to think that some fellas even get upset when people who have taken time to look at a stock and analyse it post their thoughts and for whatever reason, it doesn't pan out. thtas the imperfection of the market.

Lets get the foundation right first brothers and then the rest will follow.

A lot of fellas here have learnt including me and we're all still learning. many folks have joined with their great expertise and moved us all to a new level in many ways. but never exchange learning for spoon feeding, don't do it because its never worth it. it will end up being the case that "i've taught u everything u know but i've not taught u everything i know".

its hard and time consuming yes but its not impossible as this forum proves.

keep up the good work guys. hopefully i'l be back in full force in a few weeks but i always cherish your insights and ideas.

heads up pumping, easi, wanajo, windy, yodi, fof2,olulufemi,naijadr, temmie10 et al.

I deeply concur.

Like I said in a recent post, the strength of this thread is in being able to make what other folks bring here, together with what you bring and make it your own.

No system is foolproof and everything keeps evolving.

enurayce:
@pumping777
Which 5 stocks will u  recommended for buy in the coming week?

My radar is empty short of UBA_{and maybe Guinness}. I emptied around 50% of my portolio this week and I'm also looking for deals but I'm not seeing anything sweet .

I know there must be some good stuff so I'm going to spend more time looking over the weekend. The current prices are just scary. If I get any weekend jist or lift off some dust over my eyes I will share my post here.

[quote author=invisible! link=topic=31554.msg1820962#msg1820962 date=1199471863]I am surprised at the turn of events here! sometimes in early december that i mentioned i wanted to cycle into unity bank, some gurus here said there was nothing good about unity bank, that they will never touch it with a ten foot pole.

When i mentioned that i made a fast 40% in the stock in three months, they still told me the bank is as good as dead. They told me i was being sentimental and will make a mistake because i got lucky last time.

Thank God i didnt listen, went ahead and bought me a few hundred k units, and see how una dey praise the so called dead bank!

Na me go sell to una on monday I will offload my unity bank on you guys   [/quote]Oya. Kia kia. Where make I send your cash?

It's how the market is. You have to follow your own conviction. Even this one na specualation and it can back fire. I think people at looking at this now because of the mention of a PO which is still over 2 months away. I probably still won't buy anyway.

[quote author=enurayce link=topic=31554.msg1820857#msg1820857 date=1199469422][/quote]Except some of these insurance stock prices drop next week, I won't recommend any right now. I expect the momentum to cool due to profit takers. Take position then. Most have already declared their 9 months results and Full year results are like 6 months away for most of them. If you are not in already, I think it is better to wait. Remember there will still be surprises. Niger insurance is a good example.

I can't speculate on Oasis unless we know more. Based on what we know now, the fundamentals is scary. Forward PE of 86 based on Q-3 results. There may be something for speculators but I don't accommodate this level of risk.

Chei!!!. We all have to be "UNITED" next week.

windywendy:
OK thanks. I have other questions though. I'm wondering if I should just send you an email or post it here. Perhaps I should post here so that the forum can benefit:

1. When you issue your mandates by email, do you send it to just your account officer or do you cc other folks (I do this with FSDH just so that in the event that my a/c officer is unable to trade that day, someone else could execute).
2. If you do cc other folks, then can you PLEASE _{really really please} send me their names by email: windywendy121 at hotmail dot com. Thanks.
3. Do you use them for all of your transactions (for instance with FSDH, I use their address for all transactions including Private placements, so they get all of my certificates, dividend warrants, etc and handle from there)

thanks in anticipation of your response.

1. I send an email only to my Relationship Officer. He sends a one liner to confirm receipt. He is an Associate and has others working for him in his team. He has a blackberry so an email is as good as a phone call. He will now forward my request to any of these folks in his team who now take care of my orders. Otherwise, I have no other dealings with them directly.

2. Not Applicable. At times, if the main guy is not around he will tell me to contact any of these other guys directly. It's the only time I deal directly with them.

3. Yes, I use them for all my transactions. Best option but I think you have to request it so ensure it is set up for you.

windywendy:
Oga Pumping, thanks for the BGL info. Spoke with them yesterday and will be turning in my check on Monday. If it's no problem, can you provide the name of your account officer? Don't worry if you're not comfortable posting on the forum. Thanks.

Madam,  I salute.

I can send it to you via email. The man fit dey here

My email is pumping777 (at) yahoo (dot) com